US Secretary of State makes farewell tour of the Middle East

Just a year after the United States sponsored a Middle East Peace Conference at Annapolis, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is off to the region next week to meet with various parties in order to encourage them to press ahead.

Last year, America urged the parties to conclude a peace deal by the end of President Bush’s term of office but that doesn’t look likely now. Arabs and Israelis both agree on at least one thing and it is that the American timelines will not be met.

Rice will start her tour the day after America elects a new President. The election will undoubtedly impact on the parties’ views of what will be possible in the weeks and months ahead.

But the American election is not the only one at issue. Ms. Livni’s failure to put together a coalition means Israel will go to fresh elections in February. And Palestinians are also divided over who is in charge and some are calling for fresh elections. The Israeli elections alone should delay any peace negotiations until well into the spring of 2009.

Secretary Rice will visit Egypt, Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territories during her four-day tour. After soliciting views from Fatah Palestinians, various Israelis and Jordan’s King, Rice will huddle with representatives of the Middle East Quartet at Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh resort on the 9th of November. The Quartet, composed of the EU, US, UN and Russia, are unlikely to be able to offer much encouragement.

Meanwhile, Hamas and Fatah are scheduled to start reconciliation discussions in Cairo on the same day Rice meets on the Red Sea with the Quartet. These intra-Palestinian talks are very important. Hamas currently controls Gaza while Fatah has broader sway on the West Bank. Before Palestinians can hope to succeed in talks with the Israelis, they must have a clear idea of who is in charge and what they want.

The same applies to the Israelis. Political leadership in Israel is passing to a younger generation but lately they seem equally incapable of deciding who is in charge of their political future.

There will be no progress towards Peace until the two sides have determined who will speak for them and what they will say. America must do the same before it can help.

Iranians invade America

Uniform-wearing Iranians are in the middle of the US heart land to do battle with America’s finest and to try and learn some of our secrets. Sounds scary but actually it may help promote peace between the two countries.

In a program sponsored by George Bush, Iran’s national basketball team is in Utah to play some pre-Olympic tune-up games against the NBA and others. They are here on official business to learn as much from the NBA games as they can before they move on to Beijing for the Olympic Games in a few weeks.

To help them learn our secrets, they are being allowed to watch NBA teams practice as they get ready for the Rocky Mountain Revue summer series. They will also play the Utah Jazz and the Dallas Mavericks as part of the series of exhibition games. And they will play two other games against NBA Development League players.

Iran Basketball Federation director Mashhoun Raza said "We want to learn some more techniques of the basketball in America to take with us back. America is one of the best basketball teams in the world, so we are here to get some experience from them and play with them and to learn from them (and) get to a higher level."

The Iranians have a pretty good team themselves. They not only qualified for the Olympics for the first time in sixty years in this sport but they are the reigning FIBA Asian basketball champions.

They won’t just be stealing our basketball secrets. They will share some also. The Iranians helped at a free youth basketball clinic with D-League standouts at the Utah Flash's training facility.

And if they get a chance, they will take in some of Utah’s tourist venues. That may be the most interesting event as the Iranian Shi’a Muslims encounter the Utah Mormons.

State Department spokeswoman Darlene Kirk, of the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, said this exchange program began in 2006 when President Bush asked her office to "expand our people-to-people contacts with Iranian people." More than 160 Iran citizens from various professions — doctors, lawyers, judges, artists and other national sports teams — have visited the U.S. so far. A group of elite American wrestlers returned the favor by traveling to Iran in 2007. "This is one of the ongoing commitments to build a bridge with the Iranian people through citizen exchanges," Kirk said

The NBA is happy to help. "In an increasingly turbulent world, it is rewarding to bring people together to celebrate teamwork, discipline and respectful competition on the court," said NBA commissioner David Stern in a statement released by the league regarding the Iranians' Utah visit. "In this spirit," Stern continued, "the NBA embraces the opportunity to welcome the Basketball Federation of Iran and the Iranian Olympic team in a demonstration of how something as simple as a game of basketball can promote understanding."

On the court, the Iranians will fight the Americans with all they have. But they will be fighting without their best player, Aidin Bahrami, who was killed in a car accident in December. That said, they still have a 7-foot-5-inch beanpole center, Jaber Rouzbehani. The Iranian team is coached by Rajko Toroman, a native Serbian. He is assisted by Mehran Hatami, former Iranian national team member.

In the run up to the Olympics, the Iranians will have played 28 exhibition games in Italy, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Australia and China, as well as the United States. After a week of intense basketball in the USA, the Iranians will retreat back home to Iran for five days of rest and recuperation before heading to China to get ready for the Olympics. Perhaps they will battle Americans there on the courts one more time.

Syrian dirt being inspected and suspected

The International Atomic Energy Agency has dispatched a four man inspection team to Syria. They will be spending three days this week investigating the al-Kibar site in the desert near the Euphrates river in north-central Syria.

There is not much to see at the site. Israel bombed it on 6 September 2007. The rubble was then quickly bulldozed away by the Syrians. It took the Syrians less than six weeks to completely level the site.

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Israel and the United States aid the site was a nascent nuclear plant similar in design to one in North Korea. Damascus has had several stories about what the plant was, but only one on what it wasn’t. They say it was not a nuclear facility.

The deputy chief of the IAEA, Olli Heinonen - who is leading the team of inspectors - said the inspectors were "looking for the facts".

Syria says it welcomes the inspection but insists that the IAEA’s work will be limited to the al-Kibar site.

In April of this year, America released pictures allegedly showing North Korean experts at the construction site, which it said closely resembled a North Korean reactor at Yongbyon.

In October of 2007, Syrian officials, to include President Assad, said the bombed site was a “military facility under construction,” and denied that it had anything to do with a nuclear facility.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei said: "We have no evidence that Syria has the human resources that would allow it to carry out a large nuclear program. We do not see Syria having nuclear fuel."

In April the White house issued the following statement:
Today, administration officials have briefed select Congressional committees on an issue of great international concern.
Until 6 September, 2007, the Syrian regime was building a covert nuclear reactor in its eastern desert capable of producing plutonium. We are convinced, based on a variety of information, that North Korea assisted Syria's covert nuclear activities. We have good reason to believe that reactor, which was damaged beyond repair on 6 September of last year, was not intended for peaceful purposes.
Carefully hidden from view, the reactor was not configured for such purposes. In defiance of its international obligations, Syria did not inform the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the construction of the reactor, and, after it was destroyed, the regime moved quickly to bury evidence of its existence.
This cover-up only served to reinforce our confidence that this reactor was not intended for peaceful activities.
'Must come clean'
We are briefing the IAEA on this intelligence. The Syrian regime must come clean before the world regarding its illicit nuclear activities.
The Syrian regime supports terrorism, takes action that destabilises Lebanon, allows the transit of some foreign fighters into Iraq, and represses its own people. If Syria wants better relations with the international community, it should put an end to these activities.
We have long been seriously concerned about North Korea's nuclear weapons program and its proliferation activities. North Korea's clandestine nuclear cooperation with Syria is a dangerous manifestation of those activities. One way we have chosen to deal with this problem is through the Six Party Framework.
Through this process we are working with our partners to achieve the verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. The United States is also committed to ensuring that North Korea does not further engage in proliferation activities. We will work with our partners to establish in the Six Party Framework a rigorous verification mechanism to ensure that such conduct and other nuclear activities have ceased.
'Risks of Iran'
The construction of this reactor was a dangerous and potentially destabilising [sic] development for the region and the world. This is particularly true because it was done covertly and in violation of the very procedures designed to reassure the world of the peaceful intent of nuclear activities.
This development also serves as a reminder that often the same regimes that sponsor proliferation also sponsor terrorism and foster instability, and co-operate with one another in doing so. This underscores that the international community is right to be very concerned about the nuclear activities of Iran and the risks those activities pose to the stability of the Middle East.
To confront this challenge, the international community must take further steps, beginning with the full implementation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions dealing with Iranian nuclear activities. The United States calls upon the international community to redouble our common efforts to ending these activities and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction in this critical region.

PRESIDENT BUSH TRAVELLS TO THE MIDEAST

President Bush and the First Lady arrived in Israel on May 14th at the beginning of a three-nation tour of the MidEast.

Upon arrival at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport the Israelis rolled out the red carpet. The embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Shimon Peres were there to greet him. In welcoming remarks Shimon Peres said President Bush may be the best friend Israel has ever had in its 60 year history. Wednesday night he held talks with Peres at his Tel Aviv residence and then addressed an international conference hosted by President Shimon Peres. There, President Bush said, "With every passing year, the bonds of friendship between America and Israel have grown stronger. America stands for peace, and so does Israel. And as we stand in peace, we must understand the realities of the world in which we live. We must be steadfast, and we must be strong in the face of those who murder the innocent to achieve their objectives. And in the long run, we share a powerful belief in a powerful weapon against the terrorists. We believe that the surest way to defeat the enemies of hatred is to advance the cause of hope through the cause of freedom; liberty as the great alternative to tyranny and terror." He also visited the Western Wall that evening with the First Lady.

Tomorrow, he and First Lady Laura Bush, makes a trip to Masada. Upon his return, he will speak to the Israeli Knesset. That evening, he will view the biblical Isaiah Scroll, the most complete and best-preserved of the Dead Sea Scrolls dating from 120 BCE. It has recently been put on display at the Israel Museum as part of the Nation’s 60th Anniversary events.

Security is tight for all these Presidential events. Traffic has been banned in the area around the President’s hotel and 14,000 Israeli police have been marshaled to help the Secret Service provide security.

Friday, President Bush finishes the mainly ceremonial trip to Israel and he flies in Air Force One to Saudi Arabia. There the President will hold talks with the aging King Abdullah. The visit officially is to commemorate the 75th year of formal U.S.-Saudi diplomatic relations. Talks are expected to focus on Iran. Saudi Arabia warned Iran today that they must be careful about their activities in Lebanon where their Shi’a surrogates, the Hizballah, fought sharp battles with Sunni and Druze forces in Beirut and Tripoli in the last week. President Bush is expected to ask the King to increase oil production. The Kingdom is currently producing 8.5 million barrels a day down from a peak production capacity of 11 million BPD. The President’s plea is likely to fall on deaf ears. The Saudi’s for their part will warn the President about the weakening of the U.S. dollar and its regional consequences.

From Saudi Arabia, Air Force One will make the short flight across the Red Sea to the Egyptian resort city of Sharm es Sheikh. There he and the First Lady will be the guests of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. He is also scheduled to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah, for substantial talks on regional issues. Topics will include the Israeli-Palestinian talks, Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Leaders from Iraq and Afghanistan are also reportedly coming to some of the meetings. He will also make remarks at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East. Once again security will be very tight as Egypt pulls out all the stops in deploying their best military and police assets.

It would not be impossible that there may be an unannounced visit by the President to Iraq on the way home. The President may see this as his best opportunity to say goodbye to the troops and to get a new update from General Petraeus, who will also soon leave Iraq to take command of U.S. Central Command.

Syrian-Lebanese Dance of Chaos Continues

Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has again postponed an important Presidential Election session. A parliamentary session scheduled for today in order to elect a new Lebanese President was cancelled and has now been re-scheduled for noon on April 22d. This is the 17th such cancellation.

Parliament has so far been unable to elect a replacement for pro-Syrian head of state, President Emile Lahoud. His term ended in November, and Lebanon has been without a president for over three months.

The latest delay may have been induced by reports that Syria recently moved three Army Divisions close to the Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, the United States has deployed three warships, including the destroyer USS Cole, to Lebanese and Syrian coastal waters. The U.S. says the ships will remain there until after a successful Lebanese Presidential Election takes place.

Damascus obviously wants a pro-Syrian President but right now Damascus doesn’t want the distraction of an election. Syria is focused on hosting an Arab Summit this week. This was to be a political plum for Syria. But it is back-firing, as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have announced that they are sending low-level diplomats to the meeting in retaliation for Syrian obstruction of the Lebanese Presidential election. Other Arab states are likely to do the same. Many Arab nations are bent on isolating Syria who has increasingly been improving its relations with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, long an important player in Lebanon and Syria, announced yesterday that neither King Abdullah nor Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal would attend the summit. Riyadh's ambassador to the Arab League, Ahmad Qattan, said he would head his country's delegation.

To add to the tension, Monday was the end of the 40 day mourning period of the death of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh. He was killed in Damascus in a February bombing. Syria’s Hezbollah allies held bellicose demonstrations and gave speeches saying they would avenge his death. They accuse Israel of having assassinated Mughniyeh. These threats and Syrian troop movements have made Israeli officials concerned.

Thus the stage is set for another failed Arab Summit and a protracted period of political impasse in Lebanon.

Two Assassinations, a Summit, and Syria

A funeral took place in Beirut today for the few charred remains of the ruthless terrorist, Imad Mugniyah, of Hizballah, who was killed yesterday in a car bomb in Damascus. It took place on the third anniversary of the yet unresolved assassination of Rafiq Harriri, Lebanon’s the Prime Minister. Both murders remain unsolved although there is ample speculation as to who is responsible for both events.

Yesterday, a bomb shattered the normally peaceful Syrian Kafr Soussa neighborhood. The blast and plume of dark smoke could be seen and heard at the America Embassy. But so far no one has walked in there to claim the $5 million dollar reward offered by the USA for Mugniyeh’s arrest. Since assassination is forbidden by US law, it is not a suspect, despite more than ample justification for wanting to see Mugniyeh dead.

The main suspects are listed by most MidEast pundits as Israel (a natual and automatic suspect), Lebanese anti-Syrian forces, and Syria itself. Ironically, Syria is suspected of killing Mugniyeh to eliminate an embarrassing link to terrorism and thus win some appreciation from those who think Syria was behind the Harriri killing. The timing would suggest someone in Lebanon trying to embarrass Syria over Harriri and the blocking of Presidential elections.

The Arab League’s Chief Amr Mousa has been trying to resolve the political impasse between Syria and Lebanon for some months without the slightest iota of success. Meanwhile, bombings in Lebanon have targeted anti-Syrian and American personalities.

Bombings of any kind are rare in Syria. This latest one follows close on the heels of an Israeli bombing attack on a yet to be explained facility in the desert. That attack and now a bombing in a populated area under score Syria’s shady dealings with the likes of Hizballah, Iran and North Korea. Mugniyeh was also known to be in contact with al Qaeda in Iraq.

Syria has been very mute in its response. Hizballah has threatened war and retaliation on Israel. Given the damage done to Hizballah and Lebanese infrastructure in the last war with Israel, there won’t be much enthusiasm for that by any but a few.

Two unresolved assassinations, political turmoil, and risk of war. These are just some of the subjects to be confronted by the 2008 Arab Summit in Damascus next month. Hopefully, the wise leaders among the Arabs will look at the region’s chaos and question the value of allowing terrorists to remain in their midst and will vote to free their societies of the blight of terror and assassination.