Syrian dirt being inspected and suspected

The International Atomic Energy Agency has dispatched a four man inspection team to Syria. They will be spending three days this week investigating the al-Kibar site in the desert near the Euphrates river in north-central Syria.

There is not much to see at the site. Israel bombed it on 6 September 2007. The rubble was then quickly bulldozed away by the Syrians. It took the Syrians less than six weeks to completely level the site.

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Israel and the United States aid the site was a nascent nuclear plant similar in design to one in North Korea. Damascus has had several stories about what the plant was, but only one on what it wasn’t. They say it was not a nuclear facility.

The deputy chief of the IAEA, Olli Heinonen - who is leading the team of inspectors - said the inspectors were "looking for the facts".

Syria says it welcomes the inspection but insists that the IAEA’s work will be limited to the al-Kibar site.

In April of this year, America released pictures allegedly showing North Korean experts at the construction site, which it said closely resembled a North Korean reactor at Yongbyon.

In October of 2007, Syrian officials, to include President Assad, said the bombed site was a “military facility under construction,” and denied that it had anything to do with a nuclear facility.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei said: "We have no evidence that Syria has the human resources that would allow it to carry out a large nuclear program. We do not see Syria having nuclear fuel."

In April the White house issued the following statement:
Today, administration officials have briefed select Congressional committees on an issue of great international concern.
Until 6 September, 2007, the Syrian regime was building a covert nuclear reactor in its eastern desert capable of producing plutonium. We are convinced, based on a variety of information, that North Korea assisted Syria's covert nuclear activities. We have good reason to believe that reactor, which was damaged beyond repair on 6 September of last year, was not intended for peaceful purposes.
Carefully hidden from view, the reactor was not configured for such purposes. In defiance of its international obligations, Syria did not inform the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the construction of the reactor, and, after it was destroyed, the regime moved quickly to bury evidence of its existence.
This cover-up only served to reinforce our confidence that this reactor was not intended for peaceful activities.
'Must come clean'
We are briefing the IAEA on this intelligence. The Syrian regime must come clean before the world regarding its illicit nuclear activities.
The Syrian regime supports terrorism, takes action that destabilises Lebanon, allows the transit of some foreign fighters into Iraq, and represses its own people. If Syria wants better relations with the international community, it should put an end to these activities.
We have long been seriously concerned about North Korea's nuclear weapons program and its proliferation activities. North Korea's clandestine nuclear cooperation with Syria is a dangerous manifestation of those activities. One way we have chosen to deal with this problem is through the Six Party Framework.
Through this process we are working with our partners to achieve the verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. The United States is also committed to ensuring that North Korea does not further engage in proliferation activities. We will work with our partners to establish in the Six Party Framework a rigorous verification mechanism to ensure that such conduct and other nuclear activities have ceased.
'Risks of Iran'
The construction of this reactor was a dangerous and potentially destabilising [sic] development for the region and the world. This is particularly true because it was done covertly and in violation of the very procedures designed to reassure the world of the peaceful intent of nuclear activities.
This development also serves as a reminder that often the same regimes that sponsor proliferation also sponsor terrorism and foster instability, and co-operate with one another in doing so. This underscores that the international community is right to be very concerned about the nuclear activities of Iran and the risks those activities pose to the stability of the Middle East.
To confront this challenge, the international community must take further steps, beginning with the full implementation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions dealing with Iranian nuclear activities. The United States calls upon the international community to redouble our common efforts to ending these activities and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction in this critical region.

FRENCH AND LEBANESE PRESIDENTS TO MEET IN BEIRUT

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is making a trip to Lebanon next Saturday to meet and congratulate newly-elected Lebanese President, General Michel Suleiman. Sarkozy will also visit France’s army battalion that is part of the United Nations’ peace-keeping force in southern Lebanon

France, the former colonial power in both Lebanon and Syria, has been actively involved in trying to solve the deadlock in the election of a new Lebanese President. Lebanon was without a President since November of last year. Early on, France sent its Foreign Minister to Lebanon in an attempt to end the election crisis.

Ultimately, it was Qatari mediation that brought a resolution to the impasse. That mediation was initiated following a spate of violence by Hizballah that left 82 people dead.

Under the Qatari deal, General Suleiman, the Lebanese Army chief who refused to confront Hizballah, would become President but Hizballah would gain virtual veto power over governmental decision making by holding a majority of positions in a new Cabinet.

Throughout the Presidential election impasse, France backed the West-leaning coalition in opposition to PM Fuad Siniora. This put a strain on Franco-Syrian relations as did the eruption of the Hizballah violence. Sarkozy’s visit will again show support for the Lebanese government and may irritate the Syrians.
It is believed that Sarkozy will also meet with newly–reappointed Prime Minister Siniora. PM Siniora just completed two days of discussions with various Lebanese factions concerning the formation of the new Cabinet. He called on all factions to work together to "heal wounds" caused by recent fighting.

The upcoming visit follows last Thursday’s telephone call between Sarkozy and Syrian President Bashir al Assad. Sarkozy reportedly expressed his appreciation for Syria’s support of the Doha Agreement. Syria’s official news agency SANA, said that during the phone conversation Sarkozy praised "the tireless efforts made by President al-Assad for the success of the Doha agreement and the election of the president by the Lebanese parliament."

PM Suleiman’s official duties started immediately. The first official foreign visitor to see President Suleiman was Germany’s Foreign Minster, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is in Lebanon on the first leg of a tour of the Middle East. Steinmeier’s visit was followed closely by a congratulatory phone call from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The new President then bid farewell to Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifah al-Thani who had be on a visit to Lebanon. That was followed by a meeting with Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah.

HAMAS AND IRAN COMMIT TO EACH OTHER

The chief of Hamas’ Political Bureau, Khalid Mishal, is in Tehran to hold talks with a wide range of the Iranian leadership. Chief among them was Ayatollah Ali Khameini. The ayatollah pledged complete economic, political and military support for Hamas even in the event Syria should abandon the movement as a result of peace talks with Israel. Khameini reportedly approved the transfer of up to $150 million in new assistance to Hamas within the next six months. This boost in economic aid comes at a time when Hamas’s rival, the Palestinian Authority is claiming its coffers are empty.

In addition to seeing Iran’s Shia spiritual leader, Mishal held talks with the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Major General Jafari, and the head of the Qods Force, Brigadier Qasim Sulaymani. The Qods force is Iran’s foreign military and intelligence arm that is often involved in terrorist activities. It maintains a strong presence in Lebanon and in the Sudan. The head of Iran’s Military Industrial Organization, Brigadier Ahmad Wahid, also met with Mishal to discuss the transfer of advanced missiles that are being produced specifically for Hamas by Iran.

On the political front, Mishal held meetings with Iranian president Ahmedinajad and Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motaki and two of his Deputies for Middle East affairs, Dr Mohammadi and Mohammad Reza Baqiri. These talks focused on the Israel-Syrian peace negotiations. Hamas is concerned that progress in these talks would leave Hamas without access to Syrian training bases, banking facilities, weapons and even a home for Mishal himself.

Ironically, Syria’s Defense Minister and Deputy Commander of the Syrian armed forces, Lieutenant General Hassan Turkmani, is also in Iran trying to reassure Iran’s leaders that the peace talks with Israel will not affect Syria’s relations with Iran. Syria has benefitted enormously from Iranian purchase of Russian and Chinese weapons for Syria over the last couple of years. Iran has also built weapons production facilities in Syria to supply not only the Syrian military but Hizballah and Hamas.

The visit of Mishal and the apparent commitment of more money and weaponry to its cause show that Iran is not done being an obstacle to peace in the region. Hamas has brought chaos to Gaza and undercut efforts of the Palestinian Authority to advance the Quartet’s peace program. Mishal undoubtedly briefed Tehran on the state of play of Egyptian-brokered reconciliation talks with the Palestinian Authority. Given the prizes he obtained from Iran’s leadership, Hamas is likely to push forward with its own violent agenda rather than cooperate with the Palestinian Authority. And in the future Mishal may spend more time in Beirut and Tehran than Damascus or Cairo.

Wrap Up of a Busy Week in the Middle East

This last week has seen some interesting developments and the coming weekend may be a bit anti-climatic. Early in the week, US Vice President Cheney visited the region. He talked about oil, Iran, Syria/Lebanon, and finally the Palestinian/Israel situation.

In Yemen, Fatah and Hamas signed a reconciliation agreement. The Yemeni agreement is a framework for a dialogue between Hamas and Fatah that, in theory, returns the situation in both Gaza and the West Bank to the status that existed prior to June 2007. Supposedly, there are no preconditions to the start of the cooperation. The office of Palestinian President, Nabil Abu Rudaina, said that the deal would remain invalid until Hamas renounces its control over the Gaza Strip.

Thursday, seventeen of the Arab League’s 22 member states sent their Foreign Ministers to Damascus for preparatory talks ahead of this weekend’s Arab Summit. Syria called on the ministers to abandon the 2002 Arab peace proposal. In a major defeat to Syria, it was agreed at the meeting that the Saudi-sponsored peace initiative would remain the basis for Arab peace engagement with Israel.

Israel for its part announced that it was trying to restart peace talks with Syria. PM Olmert and another of his ministers separately told reporters about the new initiative.

Iraqi PM Maliki issued ultimatums to Shi’a militias in Basra to surrender within 48 hours and then backed up and extended it to ten days. It is unclear whether he had to do that because of political pressures or military exigencies.

Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice departed for the Middle East. She is scheduled to meet with Palestinian PM Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders during her week-long trip. Abbas today met with Jordan’s King Abdullah ahead of his meeting with Rice and then went to Damascus.

Also today, Admiral William Fallon, the Commander of US Central Command stepped down after just one year on the job and into retirement following a long career. His public political statements and approach to Iran are believed by many to have been at odds with Washington’s civilian leadership. He was replaced temporarily by his deputy, US Army Lieutenant General Martin Dempsey.

Finally, the UN issued its 10th interim report by a panel headed by Canadian former prosecutor Daniel Bellemare saying a "criminal network" of individuals acted together to carry out the 2005 murder of Lebanese ex-premier Rafiq Hariri and many other attacks against anti-Syrian Lebanese figures perpetrated between October 2004 and December 2005. Bellemare was appointed in November to replace the Belgian Serge Brammertz as head of the UN group working to uncover who was behind Hariri's death in a Beirut car bombing. Brammertz' German predecessor, Detlev Mehlis, implicated senior officials from Syria. Damascus has denied any connection with Hariri's death or 20 attacks against anti-Syrian targets in Lebanon.

All these events set the stage for another failed Arab Summit set to commence Saturday in Damascus. Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Morocco, Oman, Jordan, and Egypt will all send low-level delegations. Syria’s Foreign Minister inferred that those countries constituted an “American virus” and that their absence was a positive thing. In reality, it shows Syria’s increasing isolation, not only over Lebanon but also over its continued willingness to follow Iran’s lead at a time when the Arab states are nervous about Iran’s intentions in the region. The fact that Damascus trumpeted today’s arrival of the President of the Comoros Islands shows how desperate they are to give the appearance that a summit is actually taking place.

Syrian-Lebanese Dance of Chaos Continues

Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has again postponed an important Presidential Election session. A parliamentary session scheduled for today in order to elect a new Lebanese President was cancelled and has now been re-scheduled for noon on April 22d. This is the 17th such cancellation.

Parliament has so far been unable to elect a replacement for pro-Syrian head of state, President Emile Lahoud. His term ended in November, and Lebanon has been without a president for over three months.

The latest delay may have been induced by reports that Syria recently moved three Army Divisions close to the Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, the United States has deployed three warships, including the destroyer USS Cole, to Lebanese and Syrian coastal waters. The U.S. says the ships will remain there until after a successful Lebanese Presidential Election takes place.

Damascus obviously wants a pro-Syrian President but right now Damascus doesn’t want the distraction of an election. Syria is focused on hosting an Arab Summit this week. This was to be a political plum for Syria. But it is back-firing, as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have announced that they are sending low-level diplomats to the meeting in retaliation for Syrian obstruction of the Lebanese Presidential election. Other Arab states are likely to do the same. Many Arab nations are bent on isolating Syria who has increasingly been improving its relations with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, long an important player in Lebanon and Syria, announced yesterday that neither King Abdullah nor Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal would attend the summit. Riyadh's ambassador to the Arab League, Ahmad Qattan, said he would head his country's delegation.

To add to the tension, Monday was the end of the 40 day mourning period of the death of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh. He was killed in Damascus in a February bombing. Syria’s Hezbollah allies held bellicose demonstrations and gave speeches saying they would avenge his death. They accuse Israel of having assassinated Mughniyeh. These threats and Syrian troop movements have made Israeli officials concerned.

Thus the stage is set for another failed Arab Summit and a protracted period of political impasse in Lebanon.

Two Assassinations, a Summit, and Syria

A funeral took place in Beirut today for the few charred remains of the ruthless terrorist, Imad Mugniyah, of Hizballah, who was killed yesterday in a car bomb in Damascus. It took place on the third anniversary of the yet unresolved assassination of Rafiq Harriri, Lebanon’s the Prime Minister. Both murders remain unsolved although there is ample speculation as to who is responsible for both events.

Yesterday, a bomb shattered the normally peaceful Syrian Kafr Soussa neighborhood. The blast and plume of dark smoke could be seen and heard at the America Embassy. But so far no one has walked in there to claim the $5 million dollar reward offered by the USA for Mugniyeh’s arrest. Since assassination is forbidden by US law, it is not a suspect, despite more than ample justification for wanting to see Mugniyeh dead.

The main suspects are listed by most MidEast pundits as Israel (a natual and automatic suspect), Lebanese anti-Syrian forces, and Syria itself. Ironically, Syria is suspected of killing Mugniyeh to eliminate an embarrassing link to terrorism and thus win some appreciation from those who think Syria was behind the Harriri killing. The timing would suggest someone in Lebanon trying to embarrass Syria over Harriri and the blocking of Presidential elections.

The Arab League’s Chief Amr Mousa has been trying to resolve the political impasse between Syria and Lebanon for some months without the slightest iota of success. Meanwhile, bombings in Lebanon have targeted anti-Syrian and American personalities.

Bombings of any kind are rare in Syria. This latest one follows close on the heels of an Israeli bombing attack on a yet to be explained facility in the desert. That attack and now a bombing in a populated area under score Syria’s shady dealings with the likes of Hizballah, Iran and North Korea. Mugniyeh was also known to be in contact with al Qaeda in Iraq.

Syria has been very mute in its response. Hizballah has threatened war and retaliation on Israel. Given the damage done to Hizballah and Lebanese infrastructure in the last war with Israel, there won’t be much enthusiasm for that by any but a few.

Two unresolved assassinations, political turmoil, and risk of war. These are just some of the subjects to be confronted by the 2008 Arab Summit in Damascus next month. Hopefully, the wise leaders among the Arabs will look at the region’s chaos and question the value of allowing terrorists to remain in their midst and will vote to free their societies of the blight of terror and assassination.

Lebanese election delayed 14 times

Despite an apparent agreement to elect Army Chief of Staff General Michel Suleiman, Lebanon’s Parliament has delayed its vote to elect a president for the 14th time. Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, said the vote would take place on 26 February. By then Lebanon will have been without a president for over three months.

The Arab League’s Amr Musa has made a number of trips to Lebanon and Syria to try and resolve the issue but always without success. He has advocated GEN Suleiman’s election and the forming of a national unity government. The election of a President will be much easier than getting the parties to form a united government. In the meantime bombs and assassinations and riots take place as the parties play full-contact politics. The Saudis and Iranians as well are working behind the scenes to advance their agendas.

For its part the United States is choosing this critical time to replace its Ambassador. The highly effective Jeff Feltman, who had stayed in Lebanon six months longer than planned, departed just days after a bomb attack on an Embassy vehicle left two dead. He is being replaced by Ambassador Michele J. Sison, a career diplomat. Ambassador Sison, pictured here, just completed a four year tour of duty as American Ambassador in the United Arab Emirates. Upon her arrival see made the following comments about the Presidential election impasse:

“The United States strongly supports the election of a new president of Lebanon. It is regrettable that a vacuum continues, and that presidential elections have been postponed twelve times. An agreement on a consensus president was reached long ago. Outside forces must stop obstructing Lebanon’s democratic process. The Parliament should meet and elect a president now, without conditions. It is tragic that this vacuum has been marked by violence and the loss of many lives.”

“I look forward to offering the congratulations of the U.S. government soon to a new Lebanese president– one who is elected freely and according to Lebanon’s constitution.”