US Secretary of State makes farewell tour of the Middle East

Just a year after the United States sponsored a Middle East Peace Conference at Annapolis, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is off to the region next week to meet with various parties in order to encourage them to press ahead.

Last year, America urged the parties to conclude a peace deal by the end of President Bush’s term of office but that doesn’t look likely now. Arabs and Israelis both agree on at least one thing and it is that the American timelines will not be met.

Rice will start her tour the day after America elects a new President. The election will undoubtedly impact on the parties’ views of what will be possible in the weeks and months ahead.

But the American election is not the only one at issue. Ms. Livni’s failure to put together a coalition means Israel will go to fresh elections in February. And Palestinians are also divided over who is in charge and some are calling for fresh elections. The Israeli elections alone should delay any peace negotiations until well into the spring of 2009.

Secretary Rice will visit Egypt, Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territories during her four-day tour. After soliciting views from Fatah Palestinians, various Israelis and Jordan’s King, Rice will huddle with representatives of the Middle East Quartet at Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh resort on the 9th of November. The Quartet, composed of the EU, US, UN and Russia, are unlikely to be able to offer much encouragement.

Meanwhile, Hamas and Fatah are scheduled to start reconciliation discussions in Cairo on the same day Rice meets on the Red Sea with the Quartet. These intra-Palestinian talks are very important. Hamas currently controls Gaza while Fatah has broader sway on the West Bank. Before Palestinians can hope to succeed in talks with the Israelis, they must have a clear idea of who is in charge and what they want.

The same applies to the Israelis. Political leadership in Israel is passing to a younger generation but lately they seem equally incapable of deciding who is in charge of their political future.

There will be no progress towards Peace until the two sides have determined who will speak for them and what they will say. America must do the same before it can help.

Iran’s Military Defenses in the Gulf

Tehran announced today that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was now in charge of the country's naval defense of the Arabian/Persian Gulf. Previously, the regular Iranian Navy had the lead role in this effort.

Over the years Iran has repeatedly warned it would shut down transit of the Strait of Hormuz at the southeastern end of the Gulf if Iran were attacked by outside forces such as the United States or Israel. Over a third of the world’s oil, some of it Iranian passes through the Strait on oil tankers.

The Strait and other parts of the Gulf are routinely patrolled by U.S., Arab, European, and other warships. Occasionally, there have been tense incidents with Iranian vessels. Last winter Revolutionary Guards speed boats threw debris in the path of U.S. warships and made threatening radio calls. There have been fewer incidents of that type with the Iranian regular navy.

Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the top military adviser of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, announced the change at this morning’s press conference. He said "responsibility to defend the Persian Gulf" has been delegated to the Revolutionary Guards' navy. MG Safavi, himself a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, said Iran’s regular navy was “assigned for the defense of the Gulf of Oman and Caspian Sea.” The Gulf of Oman is east of the Strait of Hormuz. The Caspian Sea is landlocked.

"The Guards' missiles are able to cover the whole width of the Persian Gulf. No warship can pass through the waterway without being in our range," he said. "Our armed forces, possessed with defensive weapons including missiles, air, sea and torpedoes, are able to control the Strait of Hormuz."

MG Safavi stated Iran's armed forces, including Army, IRGC and the 11-million-member Basij (militia) forces, were ready to stand up against any threat. Turning to Israel, he said, "the Zionist regime doesn't have the necessary political, economic and social capabilities to start a big war."

Concerning America, he noted, "In case of venturing into hostility with Iran, the US’s 200,000 troops in the region would be in serious danger."

America stepped its naval presence in the Gulf in recent years. Aircraft carriers are often in the confined waters of the Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman in order to provide air cover to U.S. Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Tehran caused tensions with some Gulf Arab states over the occupation of some islands whose sovereignty has not yet been determined. Iran has had some clashes with the British Navy as well. They seized, and eventually released, a number of British sailors who were part of a boarding party trying to stop oil smuggling from Iraq.

Monday, Iran also announced an air defense exercise named “Defenders of Velayat.”

The commander of the Khatam-ul Anbia air base, Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, said the “three stage” air exercise involved scores of aircraft and a large number of air bases countrywide.

HAMAS AND IRAN COMMIT TO EACH OTHER

The chief of Hamas’ Political Bureau, Khalid Mishal, is in Tehran to hold talks with a wide range of the Iranian leadership. Chief among them was Ayatollah Ali Khameini. The ayatollah pledged complete economic, political and military support for Hamas even in the event Syria should abandon the movement as a result of peace talks with Israel. Khameini reportedly approved the transfer of up to $150 million in new assistance to Hamas within the next six months. This boost in economic aid comes at a time when Hamas’s rival, the Palestinian Authority is claiming its coffers are empty.

In addition to seeing Iran’s Shia spiritual leader, Mishal held talks with the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Major General Jafari, and the head of the Qods Force, Brigadier Qasim Sulaymani. The Qods force is Iran’s foreign military and intelligence arm that is often involved in terrorist activities. It maintains a strong presence in Lebanon and in the Sudan. The head of Iran’s Military Industrial Organization, Brigadier Ahmad Wahid, also met with Mishal to discuss the transfer of advanced missiles that are being produced specifically for Hamas by Iran.

On the political front, Mishal held meetings with Iranian president Ahmedinajad and Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motaki and two of his Deputies for Middle East affairs, Dr Mohammadi and Mohammad Reza Baqiri. These talks focused on the Israel-Syrian peace negotiations. Hamas is concerned that progress in these talks would leave Hamas without access to Syrian training bases, banking facilities, weapons and even a home for Mishal himself.

Ironically, Syria’s Defense Minister and Deputy Commander of the Syrian armed forces, Lieutenant General Hassan Turkmani, is also in Iran trying to reassure Iran’s leaders that the peace talks with Israel will not affect Syria’s relations with Iran. Syria has benefitted enormously from Iranian purchase of Russian and Chinese weapons for Syria over the last couple of years. Iran has also built weapons production facilities in Syria to supply not only the Syrian military but Hizballah and Hamas.

The visit of Mishal and the apparent commitment of more money and weaponry to its cause show that Iran is not done being an obstacle to peace in the region. Hamas has brought chaos to Gaza and undercut efforts of the Palestinian Authority to advance the Quartet’s peace program. Mishal undoubtedly briefed Tehran on the state of play of Egyptian-brokered reconciliation talks with the Palestinian Authority. Given the prizes he obtained from Iran’s leadership, Hamas is likely to push forward with its own violent agenda rather than cooperate with the Palestinian Authority. And in the future Mishal may spend more time in Beirut and Tehran than Damascus or Cairo.

PRESIDENT BUSH TRAVELLS TO THE MIDEAST

President Bush and the First Lady arrived in Israel on May 14th at the beginning of a three-nation tour of the MidEast.

Upon arrival at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport the Israelis rolled out the red carpet. The embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Shimon Peres were there to greet him. In welcoming remarks Shimon Peres said President Bush may be the best friend Israel has ever had in its 60 year history. Wednesday night he held talks with Peres at his Tel Aviv residence and then addressed an international conference hosted by President Shimon Peres. There, President Bush said, "With every passing year, the bonds of friendship between America and Israel have grown stronger. America stands for peace, and so does Israel. And as we stand in peace, we must understand the realities of the world in which we live. We must be steadfast, and we must be strong in the face of those who murder the innocent to achieve their objectives. And in the long run, we share a powerful belief in a powerful weapon against the terrorists. We believe that the surest way to defeat the enemies of hatred is to advance the cause of hope through the cause of freedom; liberty as the great alternative to tyranny and terror." He also visited the Western Wall that evening with the First Lady.

Tomorrow, he and First Lady Laura Bush, makes a trip to Masada. Upon his return, he will speak to the Israeli Knesset. That evening, he will view the biblical Isaiah Scroll, the most complete and best-preserved of the Dead Sea Scrolls dating from 120 BCE. It has recently been put on display at the Israel Museum as part of the Nation’s 60th Anniversary events.

Security is tight for all these Presidential events. Traffic has been banned in the area around the President’s hotel and 14,000 Israeli police have been marshaled to help the Secret Service provide security.

Friday, President Bush finishes the mainly ceremonial trip to Israel and he flies in Air Force One to Saudi Arabia. There the President will hold talks with the aging King Abdullah. The visit officially is to commemorate the 75th year of formal U.S.-Saudi diplomatic relations. Talks are expected to focus on Iran. Saudi Arabia warned Iran today that they must be careful about their activities in Lebanon where their Shi’a surrogates, the Hizballah, fought sharp battles with Sunni and Druze forces in Beirut and Tripoli in the last week. President Bush is expected to ask the King to increase oil production. The Kingdom is currently producing 8.5 million barrels a day down from a peak production capacity of 11 million BPD. The President’s plea is likely to fall on deaf ears. The Saudi’s for their part will warn the President about the weakening of the U.S. dollar and its regional consequences.

From Saudi Arabia, Air Force One will make the short flight across the Red Sea to the Egyptian resort city of Sharm es Sheikh. There he and the First Lady will be the guests of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. He is also scheduled to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah, for substantial talks on regional issues. Topics will include the Israeli-Palestinian talks, Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Leaders from Iraq and Afghanistan are also reportedly coming to some of the meetings. He will also make remarks at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East. Once again security will be very tight as Egypt pulls out all the stops in deploying their best military and police assets.

It would not be impossible that there may be an unannounced visit by the President to Iraq on the way home. The President may see this as his best opportunity to say goodbye to the troops and to get a new update from General Petraeus, who will also soon leave Iraq to take command of U.S. Central Command.

Syrian-Lebanese Dance of Chaos Continues

Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has again postponed an important Presidential Election session. A parliamentary session scheduled for today in order to elect a new Lebanese President was cancelled and has now been re-scheduled for noon on April 22d. This is the 17th such cancellation.

Parliament has so far been unable to elect a replacement for pro-Syrian head of state, President Emile Lahoud. His term ended in November, and Lebanon has been without a president for over three months.

The latest delay may have been induced by reports that Syria recently moved three Army Divisions close to the Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, the United States has deployed three warships, including the destroyer USS Cole, to Lebanese and Syrian coastal waters. The U.S. says the ships will remain there until after a successful Lebanese Presidential Election takes place.

Damascus obviously wants a pro-Syrian President but right now Damascus doesn’t want the distraction of an election. Syria is focused on hosting an Arab Summit this week. This was to be a political plum for Syria. But it is back-firing, as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have announced that they are sending low-level diplomats to the meeting in retaliation for Syrian obstruction of the Lebanese Presidential election. Other Arab states are likely to do the same. Many Arab nations are bent on isolating Syria who has increasingly been improving its relations with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, long an important player in Lebanon and Syria, announced yesterday that neither King Abdullah nor Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal would attend the summit. Riyadh's ambassador to the Arab League, Ahmad Qattan, said he would head his country's delegation.

To add to the tension, Monday was the end of the 40 day mourning period of the death of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh. He was killed in Damascus in a February bombing. Syria’s Hezbollah allies held bellicose demonstrations and gave speeches saying they would avenge his death. They accuse Israel of having assassinated Mughniyeh. These threats and Syrian troop movements have made Israeli officials concerned.

Thus the stage is set for another failed Arab Summit and a protracted period of political impasse in Lebanon.

Two Assassinations, a Summit, and Syria

A funeral took place in Beirut today for the few charred remains of the ruthless terrorist, Imad Mugniyah, of Hizballah, who was killed yesterday in a car bomb in Damascus. It took place on the third anniversary of the yet unresolved assassination of Rafiq Harriri, Lebanon’s the Prime Minister. Both murders remain unsolved although there is ample speculation as to who is responsible for both events.

Yesterday, a bomb shattered the normally peaceful Syrian Kafr Soussa neighborhood. The blast and plume of dark smoke could be seen and heard at the America Embassy. But so far no one has walked in there to claim the $5 million dollar reward offered by the USA for Mugniyeh’s arrest. Since assassination is forbidden by US law, it is not a suspect, despite more than ample justification for wanting to see Mugniyeh dead.

The main suspects are listed by most MidEast pundits as Israel (a natual and automatic suspect), Lebanese anti-Syrian forces, and Syria itself. Ironically, Syria is suspected of killing Mugniyeh to eliminate an embarrassing link to terrorism and thus win some appreciation from those who think Syria was behind the Harriri killing. The timing would suggest someone in Lebanon trying to embarrass Syria over Harriri and the blocking of Presidential elections.

The Arab League’s Chief Amr Mousa has been trying to resolve the political impasse between Syria and Lebanon for some months without the slightest iota of success. Meanwhile, bombings in Lebanon have targeted anti-Syrian and American personalities.

Bombings of any kind are rare in Syria. This latest one follows close on the heels of an Israeli bombing attack on a yet to be explained facility in the desert. That attack and now a bombing in a populated area under score Syria’s shady dealings with the likes of Hizballah, Iran and North Korea. Mugniyeh was also known to be in contact with al Qaeda in Iraq.

Syria has been very mute in its response. Hizballah has threatened war and retaliation on Israel. Given the damage done to Hizballah and Lebanese infrastructure in the last war with Israel, there won’t be much enthusiasm for that by any but a few.

Two unresolved assassinations, political turmoil, and risk of war. These are just some of the subjects to be confronted by the 2008 Arab Summit in Damascus next month. Hopefully, the wise leaders among the Arabs will look at the region’s chaos and question the value of allowing terrorists to remain in their midst and will vote to free their societies of the blight of terror and assassination.

President Bush is going to Israel

The White House announced on Tuesday that President Bush would visit Israel next month in order to try to advance peace efforts started during the Annapolis talks.

President Bush has made multiple trips to the MidEast but all his recent trips have been to Arab countries. He has visited Jordan twice since taking office.

This will be his first trip to Israel since assuming the Presidency. He visited it while Governor of Texas in 1998. During that visit, Ariel Sharon took him on a tour of the West Bank but he didn’t meet with any Palestinian officials. This time he will presumably meet with both Israelis and Palestinians and encourage them forward in their current efforts to find a common basis for peace.

It is not known if he will visit any other place in the MidEast but that may be possible. I am sure he will be tempted to hop over to Iraq and talk to the troops who are doing such a magnificent job there.