Iranian President comes to America to Lecture Us on Nuclear Weapons

Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is coming to New York to attend the United Nation’s conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The conference, which is held every five years to review the status of Treaty compliance and consider changes, is scheduled to have a speech tomorrow from the Iranian leader who criticizes the West for their possession of nuclear weapons. At the same time Iran pursues a nuclear capability despite being a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty. Iran hopes to embarrass the West by pointing out Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons. I suspect he will fail to mention that Israel is not a signatory party to the treaty.

Iran is trying its best to pursue a nuclear option and lately Ahmadinejad has been travelling to meet with Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, Evo Morales of Bolivia, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, and President Lula of Brazil. All these travels have had two common themes anti-American rhetoric and talks about uranium or access to nuclear technology.

Iran is concerned that obtain sources for its nuclear needs that are not dependent on the West which is increasingly concerned about the secrecy of Iran’s “peaceful” pursuit of nuclear power.

New York City was the scene of a failed attempt at a terrorist bombing over the weekend. Pakistani Taliban, supported by Iran, claimed credit. But the UN will be a gracious host to the Iranian President whose nation just was granted a seat on the UN’s Commission on the Status of Women. Iran, where women are routinely imprisoned, abused, hung, and at times stoned, will now help shape global policy for the welfare of the feminine gender. The hypocrisy of the international body that allows this human rights travesty will tomorrow applaud Ahmadinejad’s duplicitous call for making the Middle East a nuclear free zone at the same time doing nothing about Iran’s violations of the very treaty under discussion. It should be noted that the conference in 1995 already passed such a resolution but again it has had no effect on Israel because Israel is not a signatory to the treaty. Iran is a signatory and had already been sanctioned by the UN three times for its failure to live up to its nuclear treaty commitments.

Ahmadinejad’s “diplomatic” efforts to forestall international sanctions on its own nuclear program are combined with various bluster. Iran has conducted provocative exercises in the Arabian Gulf and is pushing missiles to its Hezbollah surrogates in Lebanon. Just this last week an Iranian spy ring was wrapped up in Kuwait. Increases in Al Quds force presence are being noted in Latin America and they continue to play a role in Yemen. Some say Iran would like to promote a war between Israel and Lebanon this summer in hopes this will make the Israelis reconsider a strike on Iran until after Iran has what it needs to build a bomb. Using the UN is just another tool in Iran’s efforts to achieve what it has promised it does not seek – a nuclear weapon.

During the Second World War, Churchill and others took extraordinary measures to make sure Hitler could not gain access to Norwegian Heavy Water because they feared a nuclear weapon in the hands of a madman. Let us hope that there are men like Churchill today who will do the same things to prevent modern madmen from getting such weapons.

Iran’s Military Defenses in the Gulf

Tehran announced today that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was now in charge of the country's naval defense of the Arabian/Persian Gulf. Previously, the regular Iranian Navy had the lead role in this effort.

Over the years Iran has repeatedly warned it would shut down transit of the Strait of Hormuz at the southeastern end of the Gulf if Iran were attacked by outside forces such as the United States or Israel. Over a third of the world’s oil, some of it Iranian passes through the Strait on oil tankers.

The Strait and other parts of the Gulf are routinely patrolled by U.S., Arab, European, and other warships. Occasionally, there have been tense incidents with Iranian vessels. Last winter Revolutionary Guards speed boats threw debris in the path of U.S. warships and made threatening radio calls. There have been fewer incidents of that type with the Iranian regular navy.

Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the top military adviser of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, announced the change at this morning’s press conference. He said "responsibility to defend the Persian Gulf" has been delegated to the Revolutionary Guards' navy. MG Safavi, himself a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, said Iran’s regular navy was “assigned for the defense of the Gulf of Oman and Caspian Sea.” The Gulf of Oman is east of the Strait of Hormuz. The Caspian Sea is landlocked.

"The Guards' missiles are able to cover the whole width of the Persian Gulf. No warship can pass through the waterway without being in our range," he said. "Our armed forces, possessed with defensive weapons including missiles, air, sea and torpedoes, are able to control the Strait of Hormuz."

MG Safavi stated Iran's armed forces, including Army, IRGC and the 11-million-member Basij (militia) forces, were ready to stand up against any threat. Turning to Israel, he said, "the Zionist regime doesn't have the necessary political, economic and social capabilities to start a big war."

Concerning America, he noted, "In case of venturing into hostility with Iran, the US’s 200,000 troops in the region would be in serious danger."

America stepped its naval presence in the Gulf in recent years. Aircraft carriers are often in the confined waters of the Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman in order to provide air cover to U.S. Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Tehran caused tensions with some Gulf Arab states over the occupation of some islands whose sovereignty has not yet been determined. Iran has had some clashes with the British Navy as well. They seized, and eventually released, a number of British sailors who were part of a boarding party trying to stop oil smuggling from Iraq.

Monday, Iran also announced an air defense exercise named “Defenders of Velayat.”

The commander of the Khatam-ul Anbia air base, Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, said the “three stage” air exercise involved scores of aircraft and a large number of air bases countrywide.

Iranians invade America

Uniform-wearing Iranians are in the middle of the US heart land to do battle with America’s finest and to try and learn some of our secrets. Sounds scary but actually it may help promote peace between the two countries.

In a program sponsored by George Bush, Iran’s national basketball team is in Utah to play some pre-Olympic tune-up games against the NBA and others. They are here on official business to learn as much from the NBA games as they can before they move on to Beijing for the Olympic Games in a few weeks.

To help them learn our secrets, they are being allowed to watch NBA teams practice as they get ready for the Rocky Mountain Revue summer series. They will also play the Utah Jazz and the Dallas Mavericks as part of the series of exhibition games. And they will play two other games against NBA Development League players.

Iran Basketball Federation director Mashhoun Raza said "We want to learn some more techniques of the basketball in America to take with us back. America is one of the best basketball teams in the world, so we are here to get some experience from them and play with them and to learn from them (and) get to a higher level."

The Iranians have a pretty good team themselves. They not only qualified for the Olympics for the first time in sixty years in this sport but they are the reigning FIBA Asian basketball champions.

They won’t just be stealing our basketball secrets. They will share some also. The Iranians helped at a free youth basketball clinic with D-League standouts at the Utah Flash's training facility.

And if they get a chance, they will take in some of Utah’s tourist venues. That may be the most interesting event as the Iranian Shi’a Muslims encounter the Utah Mormons.

State Department spokeswoman Darlene Kirk, of the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, said this exchange program began in 2006 when President Bush asked her office to "expand our people-to-people contacts with Iranian people." More than 160 Iran citizens from various professions — doctors, lawyers, judges, artists and other national sports teams — have visited the U.S. so far. A group of elite American wrestlers returned the favor by traveling to Iran in 2007. "This is one of the ongoing commitments to build a bridge with the Iranian people through citizen exchanges," Kirk said

The NBA is happy to help. "In an increasingly turbulent world, it is rewarding to bring people together to celebrate teamwork, discipline and respectful competition on the court," said NBA commissioner David Stern in a statement released by the league regarding the Iranians' Utah visit. "In this spirit," Stern continued, "the NBA embraces the opportunity to welcome the Basketball Federation of Iran and the Iranian Olympic team in a demonstration of how something as simple as a game of basketball can promote understanding."

On the court, the Iranians will fight the Americans with all they have. But they will be fighting without their best player, Aidin Bahrami, who was killed in a car accident in December. That said, they still have a 7-foot-5-inch beanpole center, Jaber Rouzbehani. The Iranian team is coached by Rajko Toroman, a native Serbian. He is assisted by Mehran Hatami, former Iranian national team member.

In the run up to the Olympics, the Iranians will have played 28 exhibition games in Italy, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Australia and China, as well as the United States. After a week of intense basketball in the USA, the Iranians will retreat back home to Iran for five days of rest and recuperation before heading to China to get ready for the Olympics. Perhaps they will battle Americans there on the courts one more time.

Oil News Ahead of the Saudi Oil Summit

Tuesday, UAE Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli said a shortage of oil refineries is the main cause of record oil prices. He indicated that industrial nations have not built new refineries due to environmental concerns and this has caused a shortage in refined products and elevated prices at the pump.
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Also on Tuesday, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said oil prices are being manipulated by “invisible hands” in a “fake way” for political and economic reasons. At an OPEC conference in the Iranian city of Isfahan, Ahmadinejad said the price rise is “completely fake and imposed.” He said the price increases are happening when “the market is full of oil and the growth of consumption is lower than the growth of production.” He said the price rise was due to the lower value of the dollar. "The hard currency reserves of OPEC countries have been heavily affected" by the fall in the dollar, he said. "I repeat my suggestion made six months ago at the OPEC summit in Riyadh to create a basket of credible currencies which would be the basis for oil transactions," said Ahmadinejad. "Or alternatively, that OPEC countries create a new currency for their transactions."
At the same meeting, Iran's OPEC representative, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said Iran opposed any unilateral move by Saudi Arabia to raise its crude oil output without a consensus of OPEC member states. "Any output increase should be approved in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' ministerial meeting." Khatibi said, "If Saudi Arabia decides to increase its crude output unilaterally, it will be a wrong move."
Ironicaly, Iran’s opposition to increased Saudi production comes at the same time Iran plans to sell increased crude itself. National Iranian Oil Company official, Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, said yesterday that exports from the country will rise by 300,000 barrels per day to at least 2.5 million bpd this month and next as the country sells off excess oil it had been storing in tankers offshore because of refinery maintenance shutdowns. "The floating barrels will be cleared up by mid-August, we hope," Ghanimifard said. Ghanimifard did not say how much oil Iran is storing, but some analysts have estimated the amount at about 30 million barrels. Iran hopes to sell the oil at the current high prices and the Saudi increased production along with their planned sales cut cause a price reduction.
The refinery shutdowns and high prices have a major impact on another sector of the Iranian oil market – the domestic refined product market. Iran's government plans to ask parliament for $7 billion to pay for increasingly expensive fuel imports. Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, says the amount needed during the Iranian year that ends in March 2009 could rise even further if international gasoline and other fuel prices continued to rise.
He told the daily Tehran-e Emrouz newspaper in an interview on Monday that consumption was estimated at 80 million liters in Iran, above a figure of roughly 75 million liters given by officials when rationing was introduced for motorists in June 2007.
Officials had previously said both consumption and imports fell sharply after Iran launched rationing to curb soaring consumption which had risen well beyond its ability to refine crude, forcing the government to rely on expensive imports.
"If the (fuel) prices continue to rise the budget needed to import will be more than $7 billion. It will be around $9 billion," Ghanimifard was quoted as saying.
Iran's parliament authorized in February the Oil Ministry to import gasoline and gas oil for the equivalent of $3.2 billion in the fiscal year that started on March 21, but Monday's report made clear this would not nearly be enough.
Under the rationing scheme, all fuel had been sold at the heavily subsidized price of 1,000 rials (about 11 US cents) a liter. But the government revised the system starting from March to let drivers buy fuel above their 120 liter a month quota at 4,000 rials a liter.
One official said in October imports would decline by at least 20 percent to $4 billion in the 2007-08 Iranian fiscal year, from $5 billion previously.
In May, another official said Iran expects to import about 20 million liters of gasoline per day during the 2008-9 year, less than half the amount it would have imported had it not launched rationing a year ago.
But that figure was still 5 million liters higher than an import estimate given in February, before Iran allowed the sale of extra, higher-priced gasoline outside the rationing system.
Meanwhile Iran has more crude following an announcement last Suday that Iran has discovered a new sub-field within its southwest Jofeir oilfield that is expected to boost Jofeir's oil output to 33,000 barrels per day. Iran's new discovery is estimated to have reserves of 750 million barrels, according to Iran's Oil Minister, Gholamhossein Nozari.
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Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will host a meeting on June 22 for oil producing and consuming countries where ways to control soaring energy prices will be discussed. America will participate as both a major producer and consumer. The US will send a delegation to Sunday's meeting in Jeddah, led by US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. Venezuela said it would not attend the meeting. China has indicated its Vice President, Xi Jinping, will attend. China is becoming a major oil consumer, accounting for about 40 percent of the growth in global oil consumption but recent earthquakes and bad weather have temporarily reduced China’s oil needs. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will also attend the meeting. Iraq’s Oil Minister, Hussain al-Shahristani, said he will not attend the meeting.
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Iran and Malaysia's Amona Company have signed a $1.5 billion deal to develop the Resalat oilfield in the Persian Gulf. The Malaysian company will complete the project within three and a half years under terms of the contract. Iranian officials say that on completion of the project Resalat's daily output would increase from the current 8,000 barrels a day to 47,000 barrels a day. Resalat oilfield is located about 50 miles from Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf.
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Oil prices briefly shot up to $137 a barrel on world markets today after the Anglo-Dutch oil company Shell reported it had shut down production at a major offshore oil facility in Nigeria because of another militant attack. "We shut down production at the Bonga oilfield following an attack by unknown militants this morning," Shell spokesman Precious Okolobo told AFP. Violence in the southern Delta region has reduced Nigeria's total oil production by a quarter since January 2006.
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Reliance Industries, India's largest company, is increasing crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia as it seeks to secure supplies in the midst of rising demand in India and the rest of Asia, P.M.S. Prasad, president of the company's oil and gas business told Reuters. The company, which is building the world's largest refinery, is boosting purchases by at least 90,000 barrels a day, accounting for 30% of Saudi Arabia's output increase of 300,000 barrels a day this month.
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Oil revenues for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE combined will be twice that of the US GDP if the high price of crude continues according to a Saudi investment company. If the annual average price hits $150, then the three countries will have a capital flow of $25.7 trillion, with $16.6 trillion going to the kingdom and the rest split evenly between Kuwait and the UAE. The GDP in the US, said Brad Bourland, Chief Economist and Head of Research at Jadwa Investment in Saudi Arabia, is $13 trillion. If the average price settles at $100, the three GCC countries will earn $17.2 trillion.
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An official in In Iraq’s Naft Al Janoub (Southern Oil Co.) confirmed yesterday that Iraq oil exports from Basra regained their normal level after storms had suspended oil tankers activity for 4 days. Exports were completely when storms stopped tankers from anchoring in Basra port at the beginning of the week. However, the official said that the amelioration in weather conditions allowed two tankers to anchor in the port on Tuesday.

HAMAS AND IRAN COMMIT TO EACH OTHER

The chief of Hamas’ Political Bureau, Khalid Mishal, is in Tehran to hold talks with a wide range of the Iranian leadership. Chief among them was Ayatollah Ali Khameini. The ayatollah pledged complete economic, political and military support for Hamas even in the event Syria should abandon the movement as a result of peace talks with Israel. Khameini reportedly approved the transfer of up to $150 million in new assistance to Hamas within the next six months. This boost in economic aid comes at a time when Hamas’s rival, the Palestinian Authority is claiming its coffers are empty.

In addition to seeing Iran’s Shia spiritual leader, Mishal held talks with the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Major General Jafari, and the head of the Qods Force, Brigadier Qasim Sulaymani. The Qods force is Iran’s foreign military and intelligence arm that is often involved in terrorist activities. It maintains a strong presence in Lebanon and in the Sudan. The head of Iran’s Military Industrial Organization, Brigadier Ahmad Wahid, also met with Mishal to discuss the transfer of advanced missiles that are being produced specifically for Hamas by Iran.

On the political front, Mishal held meetings with Iranian president Ahmedinajad and Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motaki and two of his Deputies for Middle East affairs, Dr Mohammadi and Mohammad Reza Baqiri. These talks focused on the Israel-Syrian peace negotiations. Hamas is concerned that progress in these talks would leave Hamas without access to Syrian training bases, banking facilities, weapons and even a home for Mishal himself.

Ironically, Syria’s Defense Minister and Deputy Commander of the Syrian armed forces, Lieutenant General Hassan Turkmani, is also in Iran trying to reassure Iran’s leaders that the peace talks with Israel will not affect Syria’s relations with Iran. Syria has benefitted enormously from Iranian purchase of Russian and Chinese weapons for Syria over the last couple of years. Iran has also built weapons production facilities in Syria to supply not only the Syrian military but Hizballah and Hamas.

The visit of Mishal and the apparent commitment of more money and weaponry to its cause show that Iran is not done being an obstacle to peace in the region. Hamas has brought chaos to Gaza and undercut efforts of the Palestinian Authority to advance the Quartet’s peace program. Mishal undoubtedly briefed Tehran on the state of play of Egyptian-brokered reconciliation talks with the Palestinian Authority. Given the prizes he obtained from Iran’s leadership, Hamas is likely to push forward with its own violent agenda rather than cooperate with the Palestinian Authority. And in the future Mishal may spend more time in Beirut and Tehran than Damascus or Cairo.

PRESIDENT BUSH TRAVELLS TO THE MIDEAST

President Bush and the First Lady arrived in Israel on May 14th at the beginning of a three-nation tour of the MidEast.

Upon arrival at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport the Israelis rolled out the red carpet. The embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Shimon Peres were there to greet him. In welcoming remarks Shimon Peres said President Bush may be the best friend Israel has ever had in its 60 year history. Wednesday night he held talks with Peres at his Tel Aviv residence and then addressed an international conference hosted by President Shimon Peres. There, President Bush said, "With every passing year, the bonds of friendship between America and Israel have grown stronger. America stands for peace, and so does Israel. And as we stand in peace, we must understand the realities of the world in which we live. We must be steadfast, and we must be strong in the face of those who murder the innocent to achieve their objectives. And in the long run, we share a powerful belief in a powerful weapon against the terrorists. We believe that the surest way to defeat the enemies of hatred is to advance the cause of hope through the cause of freedom; liberty as the great alternative to tyranny and terror." He also visited the Western Wall that evening with the First Lady.

Tomorrow, he and First Lady Laura Bush, makes a trip to Masada. Upon his return, he will speak to the Israeli Knesset. That evening, he will view the biblical Isaiah Scroll, the most complete and best-preserved of the Dead Sea Scrolls dating from 120 BCE. It has recently been put on display at the Israel Museum as part of the Nation’s 60th Anniversary events.

Security is tight for all these Presidential events. Traffic has been banned in the area around the President’s hotel and 14,000 Israeli police have been marshaled to help the Secret Service provide security.

Friday, President Bush finishes the mainly ceremonial trip to Israel and he flies in Air Force One to Saudi Arabia. There the President will hold talks with the aging King Abdullah. The visit officially is to commemorate the 75th year of formal U.S.-Saudi diplomatic relations. Talks are expected to focus on Iran. Saudi Arabia warned Iran today that they must be careful about their activities in Lebanon where their Shi’a surrogates, the Hizballah, fought sharp battles with Sunni and Druze forces in Beirut and Tripoli in the last week. President Bush is expected to ask the King to increase oil production. The Kingdom is currently producing 8.5 million barrels a day down from a peak production capacity of 11 million BPD. The President’s plea is likely to fall on deaf ears. The Saudi’s for their part will warn the President about the weakening of the U.S. dollar and its regional consequences.

From Saudi Arabia, Air Force One will make the short flight across the Red Sea to the Egyptian resort city of Sharm es Sheikh. There he and the First Lady will be the guests of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. He is also scheduled to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah, for substantial talks on regional issues. Topics will include the Israeli-Palestinian talks, Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Leaders from Iraq and Afghanistan are also reportedly coming to some of the meetings. He will also make remarks at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East. Once again security will be very tight as Egypt pulls out all the stops in deploying their best military and police assets.

It would not be impossible that there may be an unannounced visit by the President to Iraq on the way home. The President may see this as his best opportunity to say goodbye to the troops and to get a new update from General Petraeus, who will also soon leave Iraq to take command of U.S. Central Command.

Muqtada as Sadr Blinks

Sunday, Muqtada as Sadr ordered his militia, the Mahdi Army to pull out of the street fighting in Basra and Baghdad. The Shi’ite leader issued a statement via his office in Najaf. "We want the Iraqi people to stop this bloodshed and maintain Iraq's independence and stability," said a statement bearing Sadr’s seal. "For that we have decided to withdraw from the streets of Basra and all other provinces."

He said it was his "legitimate responsibility to stop the bleeding of Iraqis, to maintain the reputation of Iraqi people, the unity of land and people, to prepare for its independence and liberation from the dark forces and to quell the fire of division by the occupier and its followers." Sadr also distanced himself from those "who carry weapons and target the government, the offices of the government and its parties." However, he demanded that the "random" arrests of his followers must be stopped by Iraqi governmental security forces.

Iraq’s Prime Minister, himself a Shi’ite, welcomed Sadr’s order as a “step in the right direction.” Maliki has personally been directing the government offensive in Basra.

The same can not be said of Muqtada as Sadr. Sadr has spent most of the last year living in Teheran, Iran and commuting several times a week to Qom. There he is undergoing religious studies in the city’s famous Shi’a seminaries. It is an effort to enhance his religious credentials. It is thought that he issued his order to the Mahdi Army from Qom.

Leadership by fax when his militia is engaged in heavy combat with Iraqi, American and British forces will undermine his military credentials among his followers who have suffered hundreds of casualties. The same happened in their fighting in 2004. Then, like now, when his forces were losing - he blinked. This will have important consequences for the future of Iraq.

Syrian-Lebanese Dance of Chaos Continues

Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has again postponed an important Presidential Election session. A parliamentary session scheduled for today in order to elect a new Lebanese President was cancelled and has now been re-scheduled for noon on April 22d. This is the 17th such cancellation.

Parliament has so far been unable to elect a replacement for pro-Syrian head of state, President Emile Lahoud. His term ended in November, and Lebanon has been without a president for over three months.

The latest delay may have been induced by reports that Syria recently moved three Army Divisions close to the Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, the United States has deployed three warships, including the destroyer USS Cole, to Lebanese and Syrian coastal waters. The U.S. says the ships will remain there until after a successful Lebanese Presidential Election takes place.

Damascus obviously wants a pro-Syrian President but right now Damascus doesn’t want the distraction of an election. Syria is focused on hosting an Arab Summit this week. This was to be a political plum for Syria. But it is back-firing, as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have announced that they are sending low-level diplomats to the meeting in retaliation for Syrian obstruction of the Lebanese Presidential election. Other Arab states are likely to do the same. Many Arab nations are bent on isolating Syria who has increasingly been improving its relations with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, long an important player in Lebanon and Syria, announced yesterday that neither King Abdullah nor Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal would attend the summit. Riyadh's ambassador to the Arab League, Ahmad Qattan, said he would head his country's delegation.

To add to the tension, Monday was the end of the 40 day mourning period of the death of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh. He was killed in Damascus in a February bombing. Syria’s Hezbollah allies held bellicose demonstrations and gave speeches saying they would avenge his death. They accuse Israel of having assassinated Mughniyeh. These threats and Syrian troop movements have made Israeli officials concerned.

Thus the stage is set for another failed Arab Summit and a protracted period of political impasse in Lebanon.