US Secretary of State makes farewell tour of the Middle East

Just a year after the United States sponsored a Middle East Peace Conference at Annapolis, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is off to the region next week to meet with various parties in order to encourage them to press ahead.

Last year, America urged the parties to conclude a peace deal by the end of President Bush’s term of office but that doesn’t look likely now. Arabs and Israelis both agree on at least one thing and it is that the American timelines will not be met.

Rice will start her tour the day after America elects a new President. The election will undoubtedly impact on the parties’ views of what will be possible in the weeks and months ahead.

But the American election is not the only one at issue. Ms. Livni’s failure to put together a coalition means Israel will go to fresh elections in February. And Palestinians are also divided over who is in charge and some are calling for fresh elections. The Israeli elections alone should delay any peace negotiations until well into the spring of 2009.

Secretary Rice will visit Egypt, Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territories during her four-day tour. After soliciting views from Fatah Palestinians, various Israelis and Jordan’s King, Rice will huddle with representatives of the Middle East Quartet at Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh resort on the 9th of November. The Quartet, composed of the EU, US, UN and Russia, are unlikely to be able to offer much encouragement.

Meanwhile, Hamas and Fatah are scheduled to start reconciliation discussions in Cairo on the same day Rice meets on the Red Sea with the Quartet. These intra-Palestinian talks are very important. Hamas currently controls Gaza while Fatah has broader sway on the West Bank. Before Palestinians can hope to succeed in talks with the Israelis, they must have a clear idea of who is in charge and what they want.

The same applies to the Israelis. Political leadership in Israel is passing to a younger generation but lately they seem equally incapable of deciding who is in charge of their political future.

There will be no progress towards Peace until the two sides have determined who will speak for them and what they will say. America must do the same before it can help.

HAMAS AND IRAN COMMIT TO EACH OTHER

The chief of Hamas’ Political Bureau, Khalid Mishal, is in Tehran to hold talks with a wide range of the Iranian leadership. Chief among them was Ayatollah Ali Khameini. The ayatollah pledged complete economic, political and military support for Hamas even in the event Syria should abandon the movement as a result of peace talks with Israel. Khameini reportedly approved the transfer of up to $150 million in new assistance to Hamas within the next six months. This boost in economic aid comes at a time when Hamas’s rival, the Palestinian Authority is claiming its coffers are empty.

In addition to seeing Iran’s Shia spiritual leader, Mishal held talks with the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Major General Jafari, and the head of the Qods Force, Brigadier Qasim Sulaymani. The Qods force is Iran’s foreign military and intelligence arm that is often involved in terrorist activities. It maintains a strong presence in Lebanon and in the Sudan. The head of Iran’s Military Industrial Organization, Brigadier Ahmad Wahid, also met with Mishal to discuss the transfer of advanced missiles that are being produced specifically for Hamas by Iran.

On the political front, Mishal held meetings with Iranian president Ahmedinajad and Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motaki and two of his Deputies for Middle East affairs, Dr Mohammadi and Mohammad Reza Baqiri. These talks focused on the Israel-Syrian peace negotiations. Hamas is concerned that progress in these talks would leave Hamas without access to Syrian training bases, banking facilities, weapons and even a home for Mishal himself.

Ironically, Syria’s Defense Minister and Deputy Commander of the Syrian armed forces, Lieutenant General Hassan Turkmani, is also in Iran trying to reassure Iran’s leaders that the peace talks with Israel will not affect Syria’s relations with Iran. Syria has benefitted enormously from Iranian purchase of Russian and Chinese weapons for Syria over the last couple of years. Iran has also built weapons production facilities in Syria to supply not only the Syrian military but Hizballah and Hamas.

The visit of Mishal and the apparent commitment of more money and weaponry to its cause show that Iran is not done being an obstacle to peace in the region. Hamas has brought chaos to Gaza and undercut efforts of the Palestinian Authority to advance the Quartet’s peace program. Mishal undoubtedly briefed Tehran on the state of play of Egyptian-brokered reconciliation talks with the Palestinian Authority. Given the prizes he obtained from Iran’s leadership, Hamas is likely to push forward with its own violent agenda rather than cooperate with the Palestinian Authority. And in the future Mishal may spend more time in Beirut and Tehran than Damascus or Cairo.

Egyptians went crazy this week

Thousands of Egyptians went wild in the streets this week but it was not a political protest. They were celebrating Egypt’s win in the 2009 Africa Cup of Nations football tournament in Accra, Ghana. Sunday, the Egyptian Pharaohs beat Cameron 1-0. As news of the victory spread millions of Egyptians went into the streets to celebrate. Fireworks erupted in Cairo as cars honked their horns. Police struggled to control traffic and at times joined in the festivities. Egypt has won the tournament six times, more than any other nation. They last won in 2006 when Egypt hosted the event.