Friday, March 28, 2008

Wrap Up of a Busy Week in the Middle East

This last week has seen some interesting developments and the coming weekend may be a bit anti-climatic. Early in the week, US Vice President Cheney visited the region. He talked about oil, Iran, Syria/Lebanon, and finally the Palestinian/Israel situation.

In Yemen, Fatah and Hamas signed a reconciliation agreement. The Yemeni agreement is a framework for a dialogue between Hamas and Fatah that, in theory, returns the situation in both Gaza and the West Bank to the status that existed prior to June 2007. Supposedly, there are no preconditions to the start of the cooperation. The office of Palestinian President, Nabil Abu Rudaina, said that the deal would remain invalid until Hamas renounces its control over the Gaza Strip.

Thursday, seventeen of the Arab League’s 22 member states sent their Foreign Ministers to Damascus for preparatory talks ahead of this weekend’s Arab Summit. Syria called on the ministers to abandon the 2002 Arab peace proposal. In a major defeat to Syria, it was agreed at the meeting that the Saudi-sponsored peace initiative would remain the basis for Arab peace engagement with Israel.

Israel for its part announced that it was trying to restart peace talks with Syria. PM Olmert and another of his ministers separately told reporters about the new initiative.

Iraqi PM Maliki issued ultimatums to Shi’a militias in Basra to surrender within 48 hours and then backed up and extended it to ten days. It is unclear whether he had to do that because of political pressures or military exigencies.

Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice departed for the Middle East. She is scheduled to meet with Palestinian PM Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders during her week-long trip. Abbas today met with Jordan’s King Abdullah ahead of his meeting with Rice and then went to Damascus.

Also today, Admiral William Fallon, the Commander of US Central Command stepped down after just one year on the job and into retirement following a long career. His public political statements and approach to Iran are believed by many to have been at odds with Washington’s civilian leadership. He was replaced temporarily by his deputy, US Army Lieutenant General Martin Dempsey.

Finally, the UN issued its 10th interim report by a panel headed by Canadian former prosecutor Daniel Bellemare saying a "criminal network" of individuals acted together to carry out the 2005 murder of Lebanese ex-premier Rafiq Hariri and many other attacks against anti-Syrian Lebanese figures perpetrated between October 2004 and December 2005. Bellemare was appointed in November to replace the Belgian Serge Brammertz as head of the UN group working to uncover who was behind Hariri's death in a Beirut car bombing. Brammertz' German predecessor, Detlev Mehlis, implicated senior officials from Syria. Damascus has denied any connection with Hariri's death or 20 attacks against anti-Syrian targets in Lebanon.

All these events set the stage for another failed Arab Summit set to commence Saturday in Damascus. Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Morocco, Oman, Jordan, and Egypt will all send low-level delegations. Syria’s Foreign Minister inferred that those countries constituted an “American virus” and that their absence was a positive thing. In reality, it shows Syria’s increasing isolation, not only over Lebanon but also over its continued willingness to follow Iran’s lead at a time when the Arab states are nervous about Iran’s intentions in the region. The fact that Damascus trumpeted today’s arrival of the President of the Comoros Islands shows how desperate they are to give the appearance that a summit is actually taking place.