Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Syrian-Lebanese Dance of Chaos Continues

Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has again postponed an important Presidential Election session. A parliamentary session scheduled for today in order to elect a new Lebanese President was cancelled and has now been re-scheduled for noon on April 22d. This is the 17th such cancellation.

Parliament has so far been unable to elect a replacement for pro-Syrian head of state, President Emile Lahoud. His term ended in November, and Lebanon has been without a president for over three months.

The latest delay may have been induced by reports that Syria recently moved three Army Divisions close to the Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, the United States has deployed three warships, including the destroyer USS Cole, to Lebanese and Syrian coastal waters. The U.S. says the ships will remain there until after a successful Lebanese Presidential Election takes place.

Damascus obviously wants a pro-Syrian President but right now Damascus doesn’t want the distraction of an election. Syria is focused on hosting an Arab Summit this week. This was to be a political plum for Syria. But it is back-firing, as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have announced that they are sending low-level diplomats to the meeting in retaliation for Syrian obstruction of the Lebanese Presidential election. Other Arab states are likely to do the same. Many Arab nations are bent on isolating Syria who has increasingly been improving its relations with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, long an important player in Lebanon and Syria, announced yesterday that neither King Abdullah nor Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal would attend the summit. Riyadh's ambassador to the Arab League, Ahmad Qattan, said he would head his country's delegation.

To add to the tension, Monday was the end of the 40 day mourning period of the death of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh. He was killed in Damascus in a February bombing. Syria’s Hezbollah allies held bellicose demonstrations and gave speeches saying they would avenge his death. They accuse Israel of having assassinated Mughniyeh. These threats and Syrian troop movements have made Israeli officials concerned.

Thus the stage is set for another failed Arab Summit and a protracted period of political impasse in Lebanon.