Sunday, March 30, 2008

Muqtada as Sadr Blinks

Sunday, Muqtada as Sadr ordered his militia, the Mahdi Army to pull out of the street fighting in Basra and Baghdad. The Shi’ite leader issued a statement via his office in Najaf. "We want the Iraqi people to stop this bloodshed and maintain Iraq's independence and stability," said a statement bearing Sadr’s seal. "For that we have decided to withdraw from the streets of Basra and all other provinces."

He said it was his "legitimate responsibility to stop the bleeding of Iraqis, to maintain the reputation of Iraqi people, the unity of land and people, to prepare for its independence and liberation from the dark forces and to quell the fire of division by the occupier and its followers." Sadr also distanced himself from those "who carry weapons and target the government, the offices of the government and its parties." However, he demanded that the "random" arrests of his followers must be stopped by Iraqi governmental security forces.

Iraq’s Prime Minister, himself a Shi’ite, welcomed Sadr’s order as a “step in the right direction.” Maliki has personally been directing the government offensive in Basra.

The same can not be said of Muqtada as Sadr. Sadr has spent most of the last year living in Teheran, Iran and commuting several times a week to Qom. There he is undergoing religious studies in the city’s famous Shi’a seminaries. It is an effort to enhance his religious credentials. It is thought that he issued his order to the Mahdi Army from Qom.

Leadership by fax when his militia is engaged in heavy combat with Iraqi, American and British forces will undermine his military credentials among his followers who have suffered hundreds of casualties. The same happened in their fighting in 2004. Then, like now, when his forces were losing - he blinked. This will have important consequences for the future of Iraq.