US Secretary of State makes farewell tour of the Middle East

Just a year after the United States sponsored a Middle East Peace Conference at Annapolis, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is off to the region next week to meet with various parties in order to encourage them to press ahead.

Last year, America urged the parties to conclude a peace deal by the end of President Bush’s term of office but that doesn’t look likely now. Arabs and Israelis both agree on at least one thing and it is that the American timelines will not be met.

Rice will start her tour the day after America elects a new President. The election will undoubtedly impact on the parties’ views of what will be possible in the weeks and months ahead.

But the American election is not the only one at issue. Ms. Livni’s failure to put together a coalition means Israel will go to fresh elections in February. And Palestinians are also divided over who is in charge and some are calling for fresh elections. The Israeli elections alone should delay any peace negotiations until well into the spring of 2009.

Secretary Rice will visit Egypt, Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territories during her four-day tour. After soliciting views from Fatah Palestinians, various Israelis and Jordan’s King, Rice will huddle with representatives of the Middle East Quartet at Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh resort on the 9th of November. The Quartet, composed of the EU, US, UN and Russia, are unlikely to be able to offer much encouragement.

Meanwhile, Hamas and Fatah are scheduled to start reconciliation discussions in Cairo on the same day Rice meets on the Red Sea with the Quartet. These intra-Palestinian talks are very important. Hamas currently controls Gaza while Fatah has broader sway on the West Bank. Before Palestinians can hope to succeed in talks with the Israelis, they must have a clear idea of who is in charge and what they want.

The same applies to the Israelis. Political leadership in Israel is passing to a younger generation but lately they seem equally incapable of deciding who is in charge of their political future.

There will be no progress towards Peace until the two sides have determined who will speak for them and what they will say. America must do the same before it can help.

Pirates and Marines

A new class of American amphibious ship recently made its first transit through the Suez Canal. The USS San Antonio, part of the Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group, transited the Suez on the 23rd of September and headed down the Red Sea towards the area where Somali pirates have seized more than a score of merchant ships this year.

Currently, US Fifth Fleet ships, including the USS Howard, are watching a pirate-seized merchant ship, the MV Faina. The Belize-flagged cargo ship is owned and operated by Kaalbye Shipping Ukraine and is carrying a cargo of 33 Ukrainian T-72 tanks and related equipment. The ship was attacked on Sept. 25 and forced to proceed to an anchorage off the Somali Coast. The pirates are demanding a $20 million ransom to release the ship and crew. There are some reports that demand has been reduced recently to $8 million. As many as 50 pirates are on board the MV Faina holding its crew hostage. One Russian crew member has died while in pirate control.

There maybe scores of pirates but there are about 1,900 US Marines abroad the USS Iwo Jima and several hundred more embarked on the USS San Antonio and they can be quickly transported by about two dozen helicopters.

The embarked Marines are the 2,200 man 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit. The unit has had combat tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan and its men are highly experienced.

The USS San Antonio (LPD 17) is a new class of amphibious transport dock ship. It carries four helicopters and a variety of tactical vehicles in its hull. It can also transport up to 800 Marines.

“As we enter the Fifth Fleet area of operations, we will conduct Maritime Security Operations, maritime infrastructure protection and will work to deter destabilizing activities in order to help create a lawful maritime order,” said Cmdr. Kurt Kastner, San Antonio’s commanding officer.

One of the challenges of the Suez transit was the narrow passage San Antonio had to navigate. “The path through the Suez is only 119 meters wide with water as deep as 14.8 meters,” said Lt. j. g. Kathleen Friel, San Antonio’s navigator. “Therefore, the turns made by the helmsman need to be precise when adjusting course.”

San Antonio is deployed as part of the Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group supporting maritime security operations (MSO) in the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet area of operations. MSO help develop security in the maritime environment. From security arises stability that results in global economic prosperity. MSO complements the counterterrorism and security efforts of regional nations and seek to disrupt violent extremists' use of the maritime environment as a venue for attack or to transport personnel, weapons or other material.

Also in the Iwo Jima group are the guided-missile destroyer USS Ramage (DDG 61), the amphibious transport dock ship USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) and the guided-missile destroyer USS Roosevelt (DDG 80) seen here transiting through the Suez Canal.

Since the MV Faina was seized, six other ships have also been seized or attacked by Somali pirates. The international community is frustrated at the expense and danger to cargos transiting this important shipping corridor. The US is also concerned that the tanks and other weapons and ammunition not fall into the hands of the Islamists who are fighting the Somali central government. These groups reportedly are getting a cut of the pirate ransoms which they use to finance their rebellion. Last week the Somali government authorized foreign powers to take action against pirates inside Somali territorial waters if such actions were coordinated with them.

Anyone familiar with the USMC hymn knows that the Marines have a long history of fighting pirates on African shores. I suspect the 26th MEU is planning to add a new chapter to that history.

Photos courtesy the US Navy.

Iran’s Military Defenses in the Gulf

Tehran announced today that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was now in charge of the country's naval defense of the Arabian/Persian Gulf. Previously, the regular Iranian Navy had the lead role in this effort.

Over the years Iran has repeatedly warned it would shut down transit of the Strait of Hormuz at the southeastern end of the Gulf if Iran were attacked by outside forces such as the United States or Israel. Over a third of the world’s oil, some of it Iranian passes through the Strait on oil tankers.

The Strait and other parts of the Gulf are routinely patrolled by U.S., Arab, European, and other warships. Occasionally, there have been tense incidents with Iranian vessels. Last winter Revolutionary Guards speed boats threw debris in the path of U.S. warships and made threatening radio calls. There have been fewer incidents of that type with the Iranian regular navy.

Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the top military adviser of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, announced the change at this morning’s press conference. He said "responsibility to defend the Persian Gulf" has been delegated to the Revolutionary Guards' navy. MG Safavi, himself a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, said Iran’s regular navy was “assigned for the defense of the Gulf of Oman and Caspian Sea.” The Gulf of Oman is east of the Strait of Hormuz. The Caspian Sea is landlocked.

"The Guards' missiles are able to cover the whole width of the Persian Gulf. No warship can pass through the waterway without being in our range," he said. "Our armed forces, possessed with defensive weapons including missiles, air, sea and torpedoes, are able to control the Strait of Hormuz."

MG Safavi stated Iran's armed forces, including Army, IRGC and the 11-million-member Basij (militia) forces, were ready to stand up against any threat. Turning to Israel, he said, "the Zionist regime doesn't have the necessary political, economic and social capabilities to start a big war."

Concerning America, he noted, "In case of venturing into hostility with Iran, the US’s 200,000 troops in the region would be in serious danger."

America stepped its naval presence in the Gulf in recent years. Aircraft carriers are often in the confined waters of the Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman in order to provide air cover to U.S. Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Tehran caused tensions with some Gulf Arab states over the occupation of some islands whose sovereignty has not yet been determined. Iran has had some clashes with the British Navy as well. They seized, and eventually released, a number of British sailors who were part of a boarding party trying to stop oil smuggling from Iraq.

Monday, Iran also announced an air defense exercise named “Defenders of Velayat.”

The commander of the Khatam-ul Anbia air base, Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, said the “three stage” air exercise involved scores of aircraft and a large number of air bases countrywide.

Iranians invade America

Uniform-wearing Iranians are in the middle of the US heart land to do battle with America’s finest and to try and learn some of our secrets. Sounds scary but actually it may help promote peace between the two countries.

In a program sponsored by George Bush, Iran’s national basketball team is in Utah to play some pre-Olympic tune-up games against the NBA and others. They are here on official business to learn as much from the NBA games as they can before they move on to Beijing for the Olympic Games in a few weeks.

To help them learn our secrets, they are being allowed to watch NBA teams practice as they get ready for the Rocky Mountain Revue summer series. They will also play the Utah Jazz and the Dallas Mavericks as part of the series of exhibition games. And they will play two other games against NBA Development League players.

Iran Basketball Federation director Mashhoun Raza said "We want to learn some more techniques of the basketball in America to take with us back. America is one of the best basketball teams in the world, so we are here to get some experience from them and play with them and to learn from them (and) get to a higher level."

The Iranians have a pretty good team themselves. They not only qualified for the Olympics for the first time in sixty years in this sport but they are the reigning FIBA Asian basketball champions.

They won’t just be stealing our basketball secrets. They will share some also. The Iranians helped at a free youth basketball clinic with D-League standouts at the Utah Flash's training facility.

And if they get a chance, they will take in some of Utah’s tourist venues. That may be the most interesting event as the Iranian Shi’a Muslims encounter the Utah Mormons.

State Department spokeswoman Darlene Kirk, of the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, said this exchange program began in 2006 when President Bush asked her office to "expand our people-to-people contacts with Iranian people." More than 160 Iran citizens from various professions — doctors, lawyers, judges, artists and other national sports teams — have visited the U.S. so far. A group of elite American wrestlers returned the favor by traveling to Iran in 2007. "This is one of the ongoing commitments to build a bridge with the Iranian people through citizen exchanges," Kirk said

The NBA is happy to help. "In an increasingly turbulent world, it is rewarding to bring people together to celebrate teamwork, discipline and respectful competition on the court," said NBA commissioner David Stern in a statement released by the league regarding the Iranians' Utah visit. "In this spirit," Stern continued, "the NBA embraces the opportunity to welcome the Basketball Federation of Iran and the Iranian Olympic team in a demonstration of how something as simple as a game of basketball can promote understanding."

On the court, the Iranians will fight the Americans with all they have. But they will be fighting without their best player, Aidin Bahrami, who was killed in a car accident in December. That said, they still have a 7-foot-5-inch beanpole center, Jaber Rouzbehani. The Iranian team is coached by Rajko Toroman, a native Serbian. He is assisted by Mehran Hatami, former Iranian national team member.

In the run up to the Olympics, the Iranians will have played 28 exhibition games in Italy, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Australia and China, as well as the United States. After a week of intense basketball in the USA, the Iranians will retreat back home to Iran for five days of rest and recuperation before heading to China to get ready for the Olympics. Perhaps they will battle Americans there on the courts one more time.

Thirty sharks arrive at the Dubai Mall

The Dubai Aquarium located at The Dubai Mall now hosts the first batch of thirty Sand Tiger sharks. They were delivered under the supervision of the Oceanis Australia Group in line with international best practices.

Dubai Aquarium, one of the largest indoor aquariums in the world, will open to the public on August 28, 2008. The Dubai Mall is one of the largest shopping and entertainment destinations in the world and will eventually feature over 1,200 retail stores and over 120 restaurants and cafes.

The Sand Tiger sharks form part of the expected population of 33,000 aquatic animals in Dubai Aquarium. Also known as Grey Nurse sharks, Sand Tiger sharks are large bodied animals, reaching up to 11 feet (3.5 metres). They are a docile, non-aggressive species. These sharks can grow up to 30,000 needle-like teeth in their lifetime which they use to grab small prey. They are found in warm or temperate waters throughout the world's oceans, except the eastern Pacific and have a tendency towards shoreline habitats.

The Sand tiger shark is the only shark known to adjust its buoyancy by burping—gulping and expelling air at the surface. This strategy allows the shark to hover nearly motionless in the water column.

Another interesting adaptation gives pups a head start: although several eggs develop at one time, the first two pups to hatch feed on the remaining eggs and embryos while still within the mother. At birth, the surviving one or two pups are already more than 3 feet (1 m) long. It has one of the lowest reproductive rates known among sharks, giving birth to one or two large pups every two years. As a result, population growth and recovery from over-fishing are slow.

The Sand tiger shark is listed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and is a candidate species for the U.S. Endangered Species list.

Sand tiger sharks actually eat very little. At an aquarium, they are generally only fed about two percent of their body weight each week. These sharks are not native to UAE waters.

Mr Yousif Al Ali, General Manager, The Dubai Mall, said, “With the largest viewing panel in the world, Dubai Aquarium is a fascinating attraction that will appeal to visitors. Apart from its leisure aspect, the aquarium will also educate visitors on the fascinating array of aquatic life. The Sand Tiger sharks are among the 85 species to be hosted in the aquarium.”

Mr Paul Hamilton, Curator of Dubai Aquarium said: “Total care was taken in the transportation of the sharks which are now adapting to their new environment. The management of marine species for Dubai Aquarium involves careful logistical planning and we are working with a highly qualified and vastly experienced staff. Sand Tiger sharks are amazing creatures and their arrival to the aquarium marks a major milestone for the project.”

The methodology employed in transporting, housing and maintaining the selected species within Dubai Aquarium comply with all relevant international and regional government permits, including CITES. The planning and setting up of Dubai Aquarium is in accordance with the guidelines of the World Association of Zoos and Aquariums (WAZA), and abides by a comprehensive Code of Ethics and Animal Care with respect to the acquisition and display of the selected species.

Other attractions at The Dubai Mall will include the region's first SEGA indoor theme park covering 76,000 sp ft; the world's largest indoor gold souk with 220 retailers; a 440,000 sq ft fashion precinct with 70 flagship stores dedicated to haute couture; the Middle East's first Galeries Lafayette department store; KidZania, a 80,000 sq ft children's 'edu-tainment' centre; a 22-screen Cineplex; an Olympic-size ice rink; and The Grove, an indoor-outdoor streetscape with fully retractable roof.

Saudi Arabia launches a Billion Dollar 'Energy for Poor' Program

Saudi Arabia has launched an initiative to set up a billion dollar OPEC fund to help poorer countries cope with high oil prices. In addition, the Kingdom plans to offer a half billion dollars in soft loans, through the Saudi Development Fund, to countries struggling to make oil purchases at the elevated prices on the world market. Some of the Saudi money would go to finance energy development projects that would make countries less dependent on oil.

King Abdullah personally announced the creation of these efforts to help developing countries cope with high oil prices. King Abdullah also called on the World Bank to set up a conference for donor nations to discuss these initiatives.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi recently said that the kingdom is willing to produce more than the 9.7 million barrels of oil a day for the rest of the year if the need arises. He also said that the Kingdom will invest a further $129 billion in the energy sector over the next five years to help increase production capacity. The Minister added that 'the current status of oil markets doesn't please anyone and that things are not in the interest of either consumers or producers'.

The King said that his country's policy, since the establishment of OPEC, has been based on adopting a fair price for petroleum that is beneficial to both the producers and the consumers.

'Starting from this policy, we have been allocating a great part of our income for the assistance development, and in the last few months we have increased our daily production of petroleum from nine million barrels to 9,700,000 barrels and we are ready to meet any additional requirements in the future', the King said.

Syrian dirt being inspected and suspected

The International Atomic Energy Agency has dispatched a four man inspection team to Syria. They will be spending three days this week investigating the al-Kibar site in the desert near the Euphrates river in north-central Syria.

There is not much to see at the site. Israel bombed it on 6 September 2007. The rubble was then quickly bulldozed away by the Syrians. It took the Syrians less than six weeks to completely level the site.

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Israel and the United States aid the site was a nascent nuclear plant similar in design to one in North Korea. Damascus has had several stories about what the plant was, but only one on what it wasn’t. They say it was not a nuclear facility.

The deputy chief of the IAEA, Olli Heinonen - who is leading the team of inspectors - said the inspectors were "looking for the facts".

Syria says it welcomes the inspection but insists that the IAEA’s work will be limited to the al-Kibar site.

In April of this year, America released pictures allegedly showing North Korean experts at the construction site, which it said closely resembled a North Korean reactor at Yongbyon.

In October of 2007, Syrian officials, to include President Assad, said the bombed site was a “military facility under construction,” and denied that it had anything to do with a nuclear facility.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei said: "We have no evidence that Syria has the human resources that would allow it to carry out a large nuclear program. We do not see Syria having nuclear fuel."

In April the White house issued the following statement:
Today, administration officials have briefed select Congressional committees on an issue of great international concern.
Until 6 September, 2007, the Syrian regime was building a covert nuclear reactor in its eastern desert capable of producing plutonium. We are convinced, based on a variety of information, that North Korea assisted Syria's covert nuclear activities. We have good reason to believe that reactor, which was damaged beyond repair on 6 September of last year, was not intended for peaceful purposes.
Carefully hidden from view, the reactor was not configured for such purposes. In defiance of its international obligations, Syria did not inform the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the construction of the reactor, and, after it was destroyed, the regime moved quickly to bury evidence of its existence.
This cover-up only served to reinforce our confidence that this reactor was not intended for peaceful activities.
'Must come clean'
We are briefing the IAEA on this intelligence. The Syrian regime must come clean before the world regarding its illicit nuclear activities.
The Syrian regime supports terrorism, takes action that destabilises Lebanon, allows the transit of some foreign fighters into Iraq, and represses its own people. If Syria wants better relations with the international community, it should put an end to these activities.
We have long been seriously concerned about North Korea's nuclear weapons program and its proliferation activities. North Korea's clandestine nuclear cooperation with Syria is a dangerous manifestation of those activities. One way we have chosen to deal with this problem is through the Six Party Framework.
Through this process we are working with our partners to achieve the verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. The United States is also committed to ensuring that North Korea does not further engage in proliferation activities. We will work with our partners to establish in the Six Party Framework a rigorous verification mechanism to ensure that such conduct and other nuclear activities have ceased.
'Risks of Iran'
The construction of this reactor was a dangerous and potentially destabilising [sic] development for the region and the world. This is particularly true because it was done covertly and in violation of the very procedures designed to reassure the world of the peaceful intent of nuclear activities.
This development also serves as a reminder that often the same regimes that sponsor proliferation also sponsor terrorism and foster instability, and co-operate with one another in doing so. This underscores that the international community is right to be very concerned about the nuclear activities of Iran and the risks those activities pose to the stability of the Middle East.
To confront this challenge, the international community must take further steps, beginning with the full implementation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions dealing with Iranian nuclear activities. The United States calls upon the international community to redouble our common efforts to ending these activities and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction in this critical region.

Oil News Ahead of the Saudi Oil Summit

Tuesday, UAE Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli said a shortage of oil refineries is the main cause of record oil prices. He indicated that industrial nations have not built new refineries due to environmental concerns and this has caused a shortage in refined products and elevated prices at the pump.
* * *
Also on Tuesday, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said oil prices are being manipulated by “invisible hands” in a “fake way” for political and economic reasons. At an OPEC conference in the Iranian city of Isfahan, Ahmadinejad said the price rise is “completely fake and imposed.” He said the price increases are happening when “the market is full of oil and the growth of consumption is lower than the growth of production.” He said the price rise was due to the lower value of the dollar. "The hard currency reserves of OPEC countries have been heavily affected" by the fall in the dollar, he said. "I repeat my suggestion made six months ago at the OPEC summit in Riyadh to create a basket of credible currencies which would be the basis for oil transactions," said Ahmadinejad. "Or alternatively, that OPEC countries create a new currency for their transactions."
At the same meeting, Iran's OPEC representative, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said Iran opposed any unilateral move by Saudi Arabia to raise its crude oil output without a consensus of OPEC member states. "Any output increase should be approved in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' ministerial meeting." Khatibi said, "If Saudi Arabia decides to increase its crude output unilaterally, it will be a wrong move."
Ironicaly, Iran’s opposition to increased Saudi production comes at the same time Iran plans to sell increased crude itself. National Iranian Oil Company official, Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, said yesterday that exports from the country will rise by 300,000 barrels per day to at least 2.5 million bpd this month and next as the country sells off excess oil it had been storing in tankers offshore because of refinery maintenance shutdowns. "The floating barrels will be cleared up by mid-August, we hope," Ghanimifard said. Ghanimifard did not say how much oil Iran is storing, but some analysts have estimated the amount at about 30 million barrels. Iran hopes to sell the oil at the current high prices and the Saudi increased production along with their planned sales cut cause a price reduction.
The refinery shutdowns and high prices have a major impact on another sector of the Iranian oil market – the domestic refined product market. Iran's government plans to ask parliament for $7 billion to pay for increasingly expensive fuel imports. Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, says the amount needed during the Iranian year that ends in March 2009 could rise even further if international gasoline and other fuel prices continued to rise.
He told the daily Tehran-e Emrouz newspaper in an interview on Monday that consumption was estimated at 80 million liters in Iran, above a figure of roughly 75 million liters given by officials when rationing was introduced for motorists in June 2007.
Officials had previously said both consumption and imports fell sharply after Iran launched rationing to curb soaring consumption which had risen well beyond its ability to refine crude, forcing the government to rely on expensive imports.
"If the (fuel) prices continue to rise the budget needed to import will be more than $7 billion. It will be around $9 billion," Ghanimifard was quoted as saying.
Iran's parliament authorized in February the Oil Ministry to import gasoline and gas oil for the equivalent of $3.2 billion in the fiscal year that started on March 21, but Monday's report made clear this would not nearly be enough.
Under the rationing scheme, all fuel had been sold at the heavily subsidized price of 1,000 rials (about 11 US cents) a liter. But the government revised the system starting from March to let drivers buy fuel above their 120 liter a month quota at 4,000 rials a liter.
One official said in October imports would decline by at least 20 percent to $4 billion in the 2007-08 Iranian fiscal year, from $5 billion previously.
In May, another official said Iran expects to import about 20 million liters of gasoline per day during the 2008-9 year, less than half the amount it would have imported had it not launched rationing a year ago.
But that figure was still 5 million liters higher than an import estimate given in February, before Iran allowed the sale of extra, higher-priced gasoline outside the rationing system.
Meanwhile Iran has more crude following an announcement last Suday that Iran has discovered a new sub-field within its southwest Jofeir oilfield that is expected to boost Jofeir's oil output to 33,000 barrels per day. Iran's new discovery is estimated to have reserves of 750 million barrels, according to Iran's Oil Minister, Gholamhossein Nozari.
* * *
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will host a meeting on June 22 for oil producing and consuming countries where ways to control soaring energy prices will be discussed. America will participate as both a major producer and consumer. The US will send a delegation to Sunday's meeting in Jeddah, led by US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. Venezuela said it would not attend the meeting. China has indicated its Vice President, Xi Jinping, will attend. China is becoming a major oil consumer, accounting for about 40 percent of the growth in global oil consumption but recent earthquakes and bad weather have temporarily reduced China’s oil needs. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will also attend the meeting. Iraq’s Oil Minister, Hussain al-Shahristani, said he will not attend the meeting.
* * *
Iran and Malaysia's Amona Company have signed a $1.5 billion deal to develop the Resalat oilfield in the Persian Gulf. The Malaysian company will complete the project within three and a half years under terms of the contract. Iranian officials say that on completion of the project Resalat's daily output would increase from the current 8,000 barrels a day to 47,000 barrels a day. Resalat oilfield is located about 50 miles from Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf.
* * *
Oil prices briefly shot up to $137 a barrel on world markets today after the Anglo-Dutch oil company Shell reported it had shut down production at a major offshore oil facility in Nigeria because of another militant attack. "We shut down production at the Bonga oilfield following an attack by unknown militants this morning," Shell spokesman Precious Okolobo told AFP. Violence in the southern Delta region has reduced Nigeria's total oil production by a quarter since January 2006.
* * *
Reliance Industries, India's largest company, is increasing crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia as it seeks to secure supplies in the midst of rising demand in India and the rest of Asia, P.M.S. Prasad, president of the company's oil and gas business told Reuters. The company, which is building the world's largest refinery, is boosting purchases by at least 90,000 barrels a day, accounting for 30% of Saudi Arabia's output increase of 300,000 barrels a day this month.
* * *
Oil revenues for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE combined will be twice that of the US GDP if the high price of crude continues according to a Saudi investment company. If the annual average price hits $150, then the three countries will have a capital flow of $25.7 trillion, with $16.6 trillion going to the kingdom and the rest split evenly between Kuwait and the UAE. The GDP in the US, said Brad Bourland, Chief Economist and Head of Research at Jadwa Investment in Saudi Arabia, is $13 trillion. If the average price settles at $100, the three GCC countries will earn $17.2 trillion.
* * *
An official in In Iraq’s Naft Al Janoub (Southern Oil Co.) confirmed yesterday that Iraq oil exports from Basra regained their normal level after storms had suspended oil tankers activity for 4 days. Exports were completely when storms stopped tankers from anchoring in Basra port at the beginning of the week. However, the official said that the amelioration in weather conditions allowed two tankers to anchor in the port on Tuesday.

FRENCH AND LEBANESE PRESIDENTS TO MEET IN BEIRUT

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is making a trip to Lebanon next Saturday to meet and congratulate newly-elected Lebanese President, General Michel Suleiman. Sarkozy will also visit France’s army battalion that is part of the United Nations’ peace-keeping force in southern Lebanon

France, the former colonial power in both Lebanon and Syria, has been actively involved in trying to solve the deadlock in the election of a new Lebanese President. Lebanon was without a President since November of last year. Early on, France sent its Foreign Minister to Lebanon in an attempt to end the election crisis.

Ultimately, it was Qatari mediation that brought a resolution to the impasse. That mediation was initiated following a spate of violence by Hizballah that left 82 people dead.

Under the Qatari deal, General Suleiman, the Lebanese Army chief who refused to confront Hizballah, would become President but Hizballah would gain virtual veto power over governmental decision making by holding a majority of positions in a new Cabinet.

Throughout the Presidential election impasse, France backed the West-leaning coalition in opposition to PM Fuad Siniora. This put a strain on Franco-Syrian relations as did the eruption of the Hizballah violence. Sarkozy’s visit will again show support for the Lebanese government and may irritate the Syrians.
It is believed that Sarkozy will also meet with newly–reappointed Prime Minister Siniora. PM Siniora just completed two days of discussions with various Lebanese factions concerning the formation of the new Cabinet. He called on all factions to work together to "heal wounds" caused by recent fighting.

The upcoming visit follows last Thursday’s telephone call between Sarkozy and Syrian President Bashir al Assad. Sarkozy reportedly expressed his appreciation for Syria’s support of the Doha Agreement. Syria’s official news agency SANA, said that during the phone conversation Sarkozy praised "the tireless efforts made by President al-Assad for the success of the Doha agreement and the election of the president by the Lebanese parliament."

PM Suleiman’s official duties started immediately. The first official foreign visitor to see President Suleiman was Germany’s Foreign Minster, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is in Lebanon on the first leg of a tour of the Middle East. Steinmeier’s visit was followed closely by a congratulatory phone call from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The new President then bid farewell to Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifah al-Thani who had be on a visit to Lebanon. That was followed by a meeting with Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah.

HAMAS AND IRAN COMMIT TO EACH OTHER

The chief of Hamas’ Political Bureau, Khalid Mishal, is in Tehran to hold talks with a wide range of the Iranian leadership. Chief among them was Ayatollah Ali Khameini. The ayatollah pledged complete economic, political and military support for Hamas even in the event Syria should abandon the movement as a result of peace talks with Israel. Khameini reportedly approved the transfer of up to $150 million in new assistance to Hamas within the next six months. This boost in economic aid comes at a time when Hamas’s rival, the Palestinian Authority is claiming its coffers are empty.

In addition to seeing Iran’s Shia spiritual leader, Mishal held talks with the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Major General Jafari, and the head of the Qods Force, Brigadier Qasim Sulaymani. The Qods force is Iran’s foreign military and intelligence arm that is often involved in terrorist activities. It maintains a strong presence in Lebanon and in the Sudan. The head of Iran’s Military Industrial Organization, Brigadier Ahmad Wahid, also met with Mishal to discuss the transfer of advanced missiles that are being produced specifically for Hamas by Iran.

On the political front, Mishal held meetings with Iranian president Ahmedinajad and Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motaki and two of his Deputies for Middle East affairs, Dr Mohammadi and Mohammad Reza Baqiri. These talks focused on the Israel-Syrian peace negotiations. Hamas is concerned that progress in these talks would leave Hamas without access to Syrian training bases, banking facilities, weapons and even a home for Mishal himself.

Ironically, Syria’s Defense Minister and Deputy Commander of the Syrian armed forces, Lieutenant General Hassan Turkmani, is also in Iran trying to reassure Iran’s leaders that the peace talks with Israel will not affect Syria’s relations with Iran. Syria has benefitted enormously from Iranian purchase of Russian and Chinese weapons for Syria over the last couple of years. Iran has also built weapons production facilities in Syria to supply not only the Syrian military but Hizballah and Hamas.

The visit of Mishal and the apparent commitment of more money and weaponry to its cause show that Iran is not done being an obstacle to peace in the region. Hamas has brought chaos to Gaza and undercut efforts of the Palestinian Authority to advance the Quartet’s peace program. Mishal undoubtedly briefed Tehran on the state of play of Egyptian-brokered reconciliation talks with the Palestinian Authority. Given the prizes he obtained from Iran’s leadership, Hamas is likely to push forward with its own violent agenda rather than cooperate with the Palestinian Authority. And in the future Mishal may spend more time in Beirut and Tehran than Damascus or Cairo.

SAUDI 'HILLARY' MAKES THE SUMMIT OF EVEREST

Farouk Saad Hamad al-Zuman, a 30-year-old Saudi, is the first citizen from the Kingdom to climb Mount Everest, the world's highest mountain. He reached the summit early yesterday as part of an eight-member summit team, including four Americans, a Frenchman, an Omani and a team leader from Canada. The Omani was forced to drop out because of altitude sickness but the others made the summit as well. Earlier others in the group dropped out at lower altitudes and one Japanese climber died.

Farouk’s accomplishment is the culmination of a life-long dream and has been a source of great pride of Saudi citizens. There he has garnered the nickname of "Sir Edmund Hillary of Saudi Arabia". Farouk is a US-educated public relations executive working for Attariq Communications, who sponsored the climb.

Farouk started climbing in the U.S. as an economics student at Oregon State University. He climbed Washington’s Mount Rainer and Mount Shasta in California.

Thanks to Arab News for the photo.

PRESIDENT BUSH TRAVELLS TO THE MIDEAST

President Bush and the First Lady arrived in Israel on May 14th at the beginning of a three-nation tour of the MidEast.

Upon arrival at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport the Israelis rolled out the red carpet. The embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Shimon Peres were there to greet him. In welcoming remarks Shimon Peres said President Bush may be the best friend Israel has ever had in its 60 year history. Wednesday night he held talks with Peres at his Tel Aviv residence and then addressed an international conference hosted by President Shimon Peres. There, President Bush said, "With every passing year, the bonds of friendship between America and Israel have grown stronger. America stands for peace, and so does Israel. And as we stand in peace, we must understand the realities of the world in which we live. We must be steadfast, and we must be strong in the face of those who murder the innocent to achieve their objectives. And in the long run, we share a powerful belief in a powerful weapon against the terrorists. We believe that the surest way to defeat the enemies of hatred is to advance the cause of hope through the cause of freedom; liberty as the great alternative to tyranny and terror." He also visited the Western Wall that evening with the First Lady.

Tomorrow, he and First Lady Laura Bush, makes a trip to Masada. Upon his return, he will speak to the Israeli Knesset. That evening, he will view the biblical Isaiah Scroll, the most complete and best-preserved of the Dead Sea Scrolls dating from 120 BCE. It has recently been put on display at the Israel Museum as part of the Nation’s 60th Anniversary events.

Security is tight for all these Presidential events. Traffic has been banned in the area around the President’s hotel and 14,000 Israeli police have been marshaled to help the Secret Service provide security.

Friday, President Bush finishes the mainly ceremonial trip to Israel and he flies in Air Force One to Saudi Arabia. There the President will hold talks with the aging King Abdullah. The visit officially is to commemorate the 75th year of formal U.S.-Saudi diplomatic relations. Talks are expected to focus on Iran. Saudi Arabia warned Iran today that they must be careful about their activities in Lebanon where their Shi’a surrogates, the Hizballah, fought sharp battles with Sunni and Druze forces in Beirut and Tripoli in the last week. President Bush is expected to ask the King to increase oil production. The Kingdom is currently producing 8.5 million barrels a day down from a peak production capacity of 11 million BPD. The President’s plea is likely to fall on deaf ears. The Saudi’s for their part will warn the President about the weakening of the U.S. dollar and its regional consequences.

From Saudi Arabia, Air Force One will make the short flight across the Red Sea to the Egyptian resort city of Sharm es Sheikh. There he and the First Lady will be the guests of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. He is also scheduled to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah, for substantial talks on regional issues. Topics will include the Israeli-Palestinian talks, Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Leaders from Iraq and Afghanistan are also reportedly coming to some of the meetings. He will also make remarks at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East. Once again security will be very tight as Egypt pulls out all the stops in deploying their best military and police assets.

It would not be impossible that there may be an unannounced visit by the President to Iraq on the way home. The President may see this as his best opportunity to say goodbye to the troops and to get a new update from General Petraeus, who will also soon leave Iraq to take command of U.S. Central Command.

BAHRAIN NAMES A JEWISH, WOMAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED STATES

Huda Ezra Ebrahim Nonoo is named as Bahrain’s next Ambassador to the United States. Bahrain has long enjoyed close diplomatic ties with America so the appointment of a new Ambassador is not unusual - usually.

This appointment is historic for a couple of reasons. First Ambassador Huda is a woman. Rarely do Islamic States send women as their envoys to foreign powers. Secondly, and even more unusual is that Ambassador Huda is Jewish. She comes from that small Jewish population that remains in otherwise Arab Bahrain.

There has been a small Jewish population in many of the Arab states for hundreds if not thousands of years. Most have long departed for Israel due to persecution by their Muslim neighbors. Bahrain has been an enclave of religious freedom in the region. Many of the Jewish families there emigrated from Iraq over the last several hundred years. Her family came in the later part of the 19th century. In 1948, there were anti-Jewish riots in Bahrain, as in many places in the region. Most of the Jewish population left at that time but a number of families did not. The trading family known as the Nonoo family decided to stay.

The head of the family today is Ebrahim Daoud Nonoo, who is the Ambassador’s grandfather and head of the Basma Company. This large trading conglomerate markets equipment, cleaning services, and security services to other firms in the region.

Huda, a businesswoman herself, was the first Jewish woman to sit on Bahrain’s Shura Council, a 40-member consultative body that is the upper house of the bicameral legislature. She replaced her uncle. A Christian woman, Alice Sama’an, also sits on the Shura council which interestingly enough has 11 women, compared with only one elected woman MP, Lateefa Al Gaood, in the 40-member lower house.

Ambassador Huda also is the first Jewish woman to head a National level Human rights organization - the Bahrain Human Rights Watch. She is its secretary-general.

Bahrain is one of the top countries in the Arab world when it comes human development and providing educational opportunities to women, according to a United Nations report. The Arab Human Development Report 2005 classed Bahrain as a country of high human development and ranked it 43rd in the world Human Development Index (HDI).

Bahrain’s government insists it is not trying to send a message to America with the appointment and that the Ambassador was picked based on her extensive talents. Bahrain has many talented people and is at the forefront of using the talents of its female population. In this case, I think Bahrain has chosen wisely.

Bahrain International Motor Show postponed due to lack of Interest

The first annual Bahrain International Motor Show which was scheduled to open 24-27 April in Bahrain in cooperation with Messe Essen GmbH has been postponed until October 4th according to the Bahrain Exhibition and Convention Authority (BECA).

The event, to be held at the Bahrain International Exhibition and Convention Center, was hoped to be packed with different activities in addition to parallel events at the Bahrain International Circuit such as 4X4 rides and drag racing.

It has been postponed due to lack of adequate entries, said BECA senior sales officer and BIMS 2008 project manager Ali Al Shehabi.

Obviously, BECA’s German partners promised more than they could deliver on short notice.

"Exhibitors that have confirmed their participation in BIMS this year are from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UK, Germany, Japan and the UAE," he said. "But the entries that we have received are not what we were expecting and need more exhibitors. We hope to encourage more exhibitors to join the event by October." National pavilions from Germany, Taiwan and the UAE have already reserved a presence at the event.

BECA, which owns and produces BIMS in joint venture with Germany's Messe Essen GmbH, is headed by Industry and Commerce Minister Dr Hassan Fakhro.

BIMS 2008, when finally held, promises to be a spectacular experience for trade show visitors as well as the entire family.

"BIMS is shaping up to be a hallmark event for Bahrain with its unique exhibits of production, concept and performance cars across different brands," he says.

"Its inaugural launch in October coincides with the celebration of Eid Al Fitr, enabling thousands of car enthusiasts and families to visit the show." Dr Fakhro said that the new dates in autumn would make it more viable for Bahrain's auto dealers to showcase their new models and concept cars.

"We are working closely with the automotive media for additional visitor marketing promotions and have launched an extensive promotional campaign in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon and Bahrain to increase visitor attendance to BIMS 2008," said BECA acting chief executive officer Debbie Stanford-Kristiansen.

“Motorsports in particular, and the automotive industry, in general, are an important driver of Bahrain’s economy. The success story that is The Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix and the recent launching of the German, high-performance sports car maker, RUF GmbH in Bahrain, the first ever automobile manufacturing and assembly facility in the Arab world, are testimony to the wealth of entrepreneurial and high-tech skills residing in the country,” says Mohammed Dhirar Al Shaer, CEO of BECA. “Bahrain Motor Show is one of the ideal platforms for the Kingdom’s automotive industry to be placed on the international map and win in the race for economic prosperity.”

This is most unfortunate for all concerned. The show is a great concept and we hope it can be salvaged in October.

Muqtada as Sadr Blinks

Sunday, Muqtada as Sadr ordered his militia, the Mahdi Army to pull out of the street fighting in Basra and Baghdad. The Shi’ite leader issued a statement via his office in Najaf. "We want the Iraqi people to stop this bloodshed and maintain Iraq's independence and stability," said a statement bearing Sadr’s seal. "For that we have decided to withdraw from the streets of Basra and all other provinces."

He said it was his "legitimate responsibility to stop the bleeding of Iraqis, to maintain the reputation of Iraqi people, the unity of land and people, to prepare for its independence and liberation from the dark forces and to quell the fire of division by the occupier and its followers." Sadr also distanced himself from those "who carry weapons and target the government, the offices of the government and its parties." However, he demanded that the "random" arrests of his followers must be stopped by Iraqi governmental security forces.

Iraq’s Prime Minister, himself a Shi’ite, welcomed Sadr’s order as a “step in the right direction.” Maliki has personally been directing the government offensive in Basra.

The same can not be said of Muqtada as Sadr. Sadr has spent most of the last year living in Teheran, Iran and commuting several times a week to Qom. There he is undergoing religious studies in the city’s famous Shi’a seminaries. It is an effort to enhance his religious credentials. It is thought that he issued his order to the Mahdi Army from Qom.

Leadership by fax when his militia is engaged in heavy combat with Iraqi, American and British forces will undermine his military credentials among his followers who have suffered hundreds of casualties. The same happened in their fighting in 2004. Then, like now, when his forces were losing - he blinked. This will have important consequences for the future of Iraq.

Wrap Up of a Busy Week in the Middle East

This last week has seen some interesting developments and the coming weekend may be a bit anti-climatic. Early in the week, US Vice President Cheney visited the region. He talked about oil, Iran, Syria/Lebanon, and finally the Palestinian/Israel situation.

In Yemen, Fatah and Hamas signed a reconciliation agreement. The Yemeni agreement is a framework for a dialogue between Hamas and Fatah that, in theory, returns the situation in both Gaza and the West Bank to the status that existed prior to June 2007. Supposedly, there are no preconditions to the start of the cooperation. The office of Palestinian President, Nabil Abu Rudaina, said that the deal would remain invalid until Hamas renounces its control over the Gaza Strip.

Thursday, seventeen of the Arab League’s 22 member states sent their Foreign Ministers to Damascus for preparatory talks ahead of this weekend’s Arab Summit. Syria called on the ministers to abandon the 2002 Arab peace proposal. In a major defeat to Syria, it was agreed at the meeting that the Saudi-sponsored peace initiative would remain the basis for Arab peace engagement with Israel.

Israel for its part announced that it was trying to restart peace talks with Syria. PM Olmert and another of his ministers separately told reporters about the new initiative.

Iraqi PM Maliki issued ultimatums to Shi’a militias in Basra to surrender within 48 hours and then backed up and extended it to ten days. It is unclear whether he had to do that because of political pressures or military exigencies.

Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice departed for the Middle East. She is scheduled to meet with Palestinian PM Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders during her week-long trip. Abbas today met with Jordan’s King Abdullah ahead of his meeting with Rice and then went to Damascus.

Also today, Admiral William Fallon, the Commander of US Central Command stepped down after just one year on the job and into retirement following a long career. His public political statements and approach to Iran are believed by many to have been at odds with Washington’s civilian leadership. He was replaced temporarily by his deputy, US Army Lieutenant General Martin Dempsey.

Finally, the UN issued its 10th interim report by a panel headed by Canadian former prosecutor Daniel Bellemare saying a "criminal network" of individuals acted together to carry out the 2005 murder of Lebanese ex-premier Rafiq Hariri and many other attacks against anti-Syrian Lebanese figures perpetrated between October 2004 and December 2005. Bellemare was appointed in November to replace the Belgian Serge Brammertz as head of the UN group working to uncover who was behind Hariri's death in a Beirut car bombing. Brammertz' German predecessor, Detlev Mehlis, implicated senior officials from Syria. Damascus has denied any connection with Hariri's death or 20 attacks against anti-Syrian targets in Lebanon.

All these events set the stage for another failed Arab Summit set to commence Saturday in Damascus. Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Morocco, Oman, Jordan, and Egypt will all send low-level delegations. Syria’s Foreign Minister inferred that those countries constituted an “American virus” and that their absence was a positive thing. In reality, it shows Syria’s increasing isolation, not only over Lebanon but also over its continued willingness to follow Iran’s lead at a time when the Arab states are nervous about Iran’s intentions in the region. The fact that Damascus trumpeted today’s arrival of the President of the Comoros Islands shows how desperate they are to give the appearance that a summit is actually taking place.

Syrian-Lebanese Dance of Chaos Continues

Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has again postponed an important Presidential Election session. A parliamentary session scheduled for today in order to elect a new Lebanese President was cancelled and has now been re-scheduled for noon on April 22d. This is the 17th such cancellation.

Parliament has so far been unable to elect a replacement for pro-Syrian head of state, President Emile Lahoud. His term ended in November, and Lebanon has been without a president for over three months.

The latest delay may have been induced by reports that Syria recently moved three Army Divisions close to the Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, the United States has deployed three warships, including the destroyer USS Cole, to Lebanese and Syrian coastal waters. The U.S. says the ships will remain there until after a successful Lebanese Presidential Election takes place.

Damascus obviously wants a pro-Syrian President but right now Damascus doesn’t want the distraction of an election. Syria is focused on hosting an Arab Summit this week. This was to be a political plum for Syria. But it is back-firing, as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have announced that they are sending low-level diplomats to the meeting in retaliation for Syrian obstruction of the Lebanese Presidential election. Other Arab states are likely to do the same. Many Arab nations are bent on isolating Syria who has increasingly been improving its relations with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, long an important player in Lebanon and Syria, announced yesterday that neither King Abdullah nor Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal would attend the summit. Riyadh's ambassador to the Arab League, Ahmad Qattan, said he would head his country's delegation.

To add to the tension, Monday was the end of the 40 day mourning period of the death of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh. He was killed in Damascus in a February bombing. Syria’s Hezbollah allies held bellicose demonstrations and gave speeches saying they would avenge his death. They accuse Israel of having assassinated Mughniyeh. These threats and Syrian troop movements have made Israeli officials concerned.

Thus the stage is set for another failed Arab Summit and a protracted period of political impasse in Lebanon.

Abu Dhabi Camel Festival

The Mazayin Dhafra Camel Festival 2008 will take place in Abu Dhabi’s Western Province 2-5 April. It is part of efforts to promote local culture and folklore.

The festival will take place in Zayed City under the sponsorship of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi. During the festival there will be a ‘camel beauty contest’, musical performances, sporting events, and displays of Emirati handicrafts.

The event will attract a large number of participants for other Gulf States (mostly from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait). Abu Dhabi hopes to make the festival into a large annual event as a way to preserve the role of the camel as an important part of Arab heritage.

The festival will have special shows for ‘Asayel’ (pedigree) and ‘Majahim’ (dark-colored) camels. Participating camels will be judged based on age groups. Breeders/owners can show more than one camel.

Similar Camel Festivals take place throughout the Arab world. Well known ones include the fairs at Goulimine, Morocco and Douz, in southern Tunisia. Most of the Gulf States hold major camel races as well.

Turkey invades Iraq in surprise wintertime attack on the PKK

Iraq’s Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has protested Turkey’s military incursions into Northern Iraq aimed at guerrillas of the Kurdish PKK terrorist group that is fighting for an independent Kurdish state. Zebari, himself a Kurd of Mr. Barzani’s Kurdish Democratic Party, decried the infrastructure damage and a lack of coordination and notification concerning the attacks. He said five bridges, including an important bridge over the Zab river, had been damaged despite previous Turkish assurances to Iraq that they would not damage infrastructure in their on-going battles with the PKK. He said Iraq had not been informed about the attacks.

It should be noted that the American White House acknowledged that the U.S. had been informed of the attack ahead of time but had urged restraint on the Turks. This will undoubtedly put some strain on the recently established arrangement under which Iraq, Turkey, and the United States share intelligence on the activities of the PKK.

The attack started just before noon on Thursday with a multi-hour air and artillery bombardment of suspected PKK facilities in isolated areas of northern Iraq. The attack reportedly caught the PKK completely by surprise and Turkey said more than a score of guerrillas were killed in the bombardment and many leaders were noted to be fleeing the border region to the south. Turkey has never before conducted a major operation against the PKK in mid-winter. Both sides usually sit out the winter and resume their operations when the snows melts in the spring.

Just after dusk, Turkish troops crossed the border on land. Some were also transported by helicopters into the rugged, snow covered mountains. Fighting has been centered around Hakurk and Sidekan, just south of the Turkish border town of Cukurca. Additional fighting has been reported in and around Bamerni, which is about 25 miles further west.

Turkish press reports say as many as 10,000 troops were involved in the multi-day operation but Zebari said only several hundred had crossed into Iraq. In what may have been an attempt at deception, the Turkish news also announced the return of their troops to their barracks on Friday, but afterwards Turkish artillery attacks resumed that evening and some fighting has been reported on Saturday.

Turkey claimed to have killed at least 79 members of the PKK and to have lost five soldiers in the fighting. The PKK say they have killed 24 Turks and had five of their fighters wounded. Given that much of the fighting has taken place by aerial and artillery bombardment, it is safe to say that neither side has a good idea of what damage they have inflicted on the other side. Turkey said nearly 4,000 PKK fighters had been in winter camps in the otherwise mostly uninhabited and inhospitable terrain.

Two Assassinations, a Summit, and Syria

A funeral took place in Beirut today for the few charred remains of the ruthless terrorist, Imad Mugniyah, of Hizballah, who was killed yesterday in a car bomb in Damascus. It took place on the third anniversary of the yet unresolved assassination of Rafiq Harriri, Lebanon’s the Prime Minister. Both murders remain unsolved although there is ample speculation as to who is responsible for both events.

Yesterday, a bomb shattered the normally peaceful Syrian Kafr Soussa neighborhood. The blast and plume of dark smoke could be seen and heard at the America Embassy. But so far no one has walked in there to claim the $5 million dollar reward offered by the USA for Mugniyeh’s arrest. Since assassination is forbidden by US law, it is not a suspect, despite more than ample justification for wanting to see Mugniyeh dead.

The main suspects are listed by most MidEast pundits as Israel (a natual and automatic suspect), Lebanese anti-Syrian forces, and Syria itself. Ironically, Syria is suspected of killing Mugniyeh to eliminate an embarrassing link to terrorism and thus win some appreciation from those who think Syria was behind the Harriri killing. The timing would suggest someone in Lebanon trying to embarrass Syria over Harriri and the blocking of Presidential elections.

The Arab League’s Chief Amr Mousa has been trying to resolve the political impasse between Syria and Lebanon for some months without the slightest iota of success. Meanwhile, bombings in Lebanon have targeted anti-Syrian and American personalities.

Bombings of any kind are rare in Syria. This latest one follows close on the heels of an Israeli bombing attack on a yet to be explained facility in the desert. That attack and now a bombing in a populated area under score Syria’s shady dealings with the likes of Hizballah, Iran and North Korea. Mugniyeh was also known to be in contact with al Qaeda in Iraq.

Syria has been very mute in its response. Hizballah has threatened war and retaliation on Israel. Given the damage done to Hizballah and Lebanese infrastructure in the last war with Israel, there won’t be much enthusiasm for that by any but a few.

Two unresolved assassinations, political turmoil, and risk of war. These are just some of the subjects to be confronted by the 2008 Arab Summit in Damascus next month. Hopefully, the wise leaders among the Arabs will look at the region’s chaos and question the value of allowing terrorists to remain in their midst and will vote to free their societies of the blight of terror and assassination.

Egyptians went crazy this week

Thousands of Egyptians went wild in the streets this week but it was not a political protest. They were celebrating Egypt’s win in the 2009 Africa Cup of Nations football tournament in Accra, Ghana. Sunday, the Egyptian Pharaohs beat Cameron 1-0. As news of the victory spread millions of Egyptians went into the streets to celebrate. Fireworks erupted in Cairo as cars honked their horns. Police struggled to control traffic and at times joined in the festivities. Egypt has won the tournament six times, more than any other nation. They last won in 2006 when Egypt hosted the event.

Lebanese election delayed 14 times

Despite an apparent agreement to elect Army Chief of Staff General Michel Suleiman, Lebanon’s Parliament has delayed its vote to elect a president for the 14th time. Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, said the vote would take place on 26 February. By then Lebanon will have been without a president for over three months.

The Arab League’s Amr Musa has made a number of trips to Lebanon and Syria to try and resolve the issue but always without success. He has advocated GEN Suleiman’s election and the forming of a national unity government. The election of a President will be much easier than getting the parties to form a united government. In the meantime bombs and assassinations and riots take place as the parties play full-contact politics. The Saudis and Iranians as well are working behind the scenes to advance their agendas.

For its part the United States is choosing this critical time to replace its Ambassador. The highly effective Jeff Feltman, who had stayed in Lebanon six months longer than planned, departed just days after a bomb attack on an Embassy vehicle left two dead. He is being replaced by Ambassador Michele J. Sison, a career diplomat. Ambassador Sison, pictured here, just completed a four year tour of duty as American Ambassador in the United Arab Emirates. Upon her arrival see made the following comments about the Presidential election impasse:

“The United States strongly supports the election of a new president of Lebanon. It is regrettable that a vacuum continues, and that presidential elections have been postponed twelve times. An agreement on a consensus president was reached long ago. Outside forces must stop obstructing Lebanon’s democratic process. The Parliament should meet and elect a president now, without conditions. It is tragic that this vacuum has been marked by violence and the loss of many lives.”

“I look forward to offering the congratulations of the U.S. government soon to a new Lebanese president– one who is elected freely and according to Lebanon’s constitution.”

American Golfer wins in Dubai

Tiger Woods won the 2008 Dubai Desert Classic golf tournement earlier this week at the twenty year old Majlis Golf Club course. He won $416,660 (U.S.) in prize money which is pretty good money for just a couple of days work. Sheikh Ahmed bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum presented Woods with his trophy. Last year's winner was Henrik Stenson. Woods also won in 2006. The course is played on natural grass. Woods shot a blistering 65 in the final round.