Syrian dirt being inspected and suspected

The International Atomic Energy Agency has dispatched a four man inspection team to Syria. They will be spending three days this week investigating the al-Kibar site in the desert near the Euphrates river in north-central Syria.

There is not much to see at the site. Israel bombed it on 6 September 2007. The rubble was then quickly bulldozed away by the Syrians. It took the Syrians less than six weeks to completely level the site.

click to enlarge


click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Israel and the United States aid the site was a nascent nuclear plant similar in design to one in North Korea. Damascus has had several stories about what the plant was, but only one on what it wasn’t. They say it was not a nuclear facility.

The deputy chief of the IAEA, Olli Heinonen - who is leading the team of inspectors - said the inspectors were "looking for the facts".

Syria says it welcomes the inspection but insists that the IAEA’s work will be limited to the al-Kibar site.

In April of this year, America released pictures allegedly showing North Korean experts at the construction site, which it said closely resembled a North Korean reactor at Yongbyon.

In October of 2007, Syrian officials, to include President Assad, said the bombed site was a “military facility under construction,” and denied that it had anything to do with a nuclear facility.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei said: "We have no evidence that Syria has the human resources that would allow it to carry out a large nuclear program. We do not see Syria having nuclear fuel."

In April the White house issued the following statement:
Today, administration officials have briefed select Congressional committees on an issue of great international concern.
Until 6 September, 2007, the Syrian regime was building a covert nuclear reactor in its eastern desert capable of producing plutonium. We are convinced, based on a variety of information, that North Korea assisted Syria's covert nuclear activities. We have good reason to believe that reactor, which was damaged beyond repair on 6 September of last year, was not intended for peaceful purposes.
Carefully hidden from view, the reactor was not configured for such purposes. In defiance of its international obligations, Syria did not inform the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the construction of the reactor, and, after it was destroyed, the regime moved quickly to bury evidence of its existence.
This cover-up only served to reinforce our confidence that this reactor was not intended for peaceful activities.
'Must come clean'
We are briefing the IAEA on this intelligence. The Syrian regime must come clean before the world regarding its illicit nuclear activities.
The Syrian regime supports terrorism, takes action that destabilises Lebanon, allows the transit of some foreign fighters into Iraq, and represses its own people. If Syria wants better relations with the international community, it should put an end to these activities.
We have long been seriously concerned about North Korea's nuclear weapons program and its proliferation activities. North Korea's clandestine nuclear cooperation with Syria is a dangerous manifestation of those activities. One way we have chosen to deal with this problem is through the Six Party Framework.
Through this process we are working with our partners to achieve the verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. The United States is also committed to ensuring that North Korea does not further engage in proliferation activities. We will work with our partners to establish in the Six Party Framework a rigorous verification mechanism to ensure that such conduct and other nuclear activities have ceased.
'Risks of Iran'
The construction of this reactor was a dangerous and potentially destabilising [sic] development for the region and the world. This is particularly true because it was done covertly and in violation of the very procedures designed to reassure the world of the peaceful intent of nuclear activities.
This development also serves as a reminder that often the same regimes that sponsor proliferation also sponsor terrorism and foster instability, and co-operate with one another in doing so. This underscores that the international community is right to be very concerned about the nuclear activities of Iran and the risks those activities pose to the stability of the Middle East.
To confront this challenge, the international community must take further steps, beginning with the full implementation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions dealing with Iranian nuclear activities. The United States calls upon the international community to redouble our common efforts to ending these activities and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction in this critical region.

Oil News Ahead of the Saudi Oil Summit

Tuesday, UAE Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli said a shortage of oil refineries is the main cause of record oil prices. He indicated that industrial nations have not built new refineries due to environmental concerns and this has caused a shortage in refined products and elevated prices at the pump.
* * *
Also on Tuesday, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said oil prices are being manipulated by “invisible hands” in a “fake way” for political and economic reasons. At an OPEC conference in the Iranian city of Isfahan, Ahmadinejad said the price rise is “completely fake and imposed.” He said the price increases are happening when “the market is full of oil and the growth of consumption is lower than the growth of production.” He said the price rise was due to the lower value of the dollar. "The hard currency reserves of OPEC countries have been heavily affected" by the fall in the dollar, he said. "I repeat my suggestion made six months ago at the OPEC summit in Riyadh to create a basket of credible currencies which would be the basis for oil transactions," said Ahmadinejad. "Or alternatively, that OPEC countries create a new currency for their transactions."
At the same meeting, Iran's OPEC representative, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said Iran opposed any unilateral move by Saudi Arabia to raise its crude oil output without a consensus of OPEC member states. "Any output increase should be approved in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' ministerial meeting." Khatibi said, "If Saudi Arabia decides to increase its crude output unilaterally, it will be a wrong move."
Ironicaly, Iran’s opposition to increased Saudi production comes at the same time Iran plans to sell increased crude itself. National Iranian Oil Company official, Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, said yesterday that exports from the country will rise by 300,000 barrels per day to at least 2.5 million bpd this month and next as the country sells off excess oil it had been storing in tankers offshore because of refinery maintenance shutdowns. "The floating barrels will be cleared up by mid-August, we hope," Ghanimifard said. Ghanimifard did not say how much oil Iran is storing, but some analysts have estimated the amount at about 30 million barrels. Iran hopes to sell the oil at the current high prices and the Saudi increased production along with their planned sales cut cause a price reduction.
The refinery shutdowns and high prices have a major impact on another sector of the Iranian oil market – the domestic refined product market. Iran's government plans to ask parliament for $7 billion to pay for increasingly expensive fuel imports. Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, says the amount needed during the Iranian year that ends in March 2009 could rise even further if international gasoline and other fuel prices continued to rise.
He told the daily Tehran-e Emrouz newspaper in an interview on Monday that consumption was estimated at 80 million liters in Iran, above a figure of roughly 75 million liters given by officials when rationing was introduced for motorists in June 2007.
Officials had previously said both consumption and imports fell sharply after Iran launched rationing to curb soaring consumption which had risen well beyond its ability to refine crude, forcing the government to rely on expensive imports.
"If the (fuel) prices continue to rise the budget needed to import will be more than $7 billion. It will be around $9 billion," Ghanimifard was quoted as saying.
Iran's parliament authorized in February the Oil Ministry to import gasoline and gas oil for the equivalent of $3.2 billion in the fiscal year that started on March 21, but Monday's report made clear this would not nearly be enough.
Under the rationing scheme, all fuel had been sold at the heavily subsidized price of 1,000 rials (about 11 US cents) a liter. But the government revised the system starting from March to let drivers buy fuel above their 120 liter a month quota at 4,000 rials a liter.
One official said in October imports would decline by at least 20 percent to $4 billion in the 2007-08 Iranian fiscal year, from $5 billion previously.
In May, another official said Iran expects to import about 20 million liters of gasoline per day during the 2008-9 year, less than half the amount it would have imported had it not launched rationing a year ago.
But that figure was still 5 million liters higher than an import estimate given in February, before Iran allowed the sale of extra, higher-priced gasoline outside the rationing system.
Meanwhile Iran has more crude following an announcement last Suday that Iran has discovered a new sub-field within its southwest Jofeir oilfield that is expected to boost Jofeir's oil output to 33,000 barrels per day. Iran's new discovery is estimated to have reserves of 750 million barrels, according to Iran's Oil Minister, Gholamhossein Nozari.
* * *
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will host a meeting on June 22 for oil producing and consuming countries where ways to control soaring energy prices will be discussed. America will participate as both a major producer and consumer. The US will send a delegation to Sunday's meeting in Jeddah, led by US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. Venezuela said it would not attend the meeting. China has indicated its Vice President, Xi Jinping, will attend. China is becoming a major oil consumer, accounting for about 40 percent of the growth in global oil consumption but recent earthquakes and bad weather have temporarily reduced China’s oil needs. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will also attend the meeting. Iraq’s Oil Minister, Hussain al-Shahristani, said he will not attend the meeting.
* * *
Iran and Malaysia's Amona Company have signed a $1.5 billion deal to develop the Resalat oilfield in the Persian Gulf. The Malaysian company will complete the project within three and a half years under terms of the contract. Iranian officials say that on completion of the project Resalat's daily output would increase from the current 8,000 barrels a day to 47,000 barrels a day. Resalat oilfield is located about 50 miles from Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf.
* * *
Oil prices briefly shot up to $137 a barrel on world markets today after the Anglo-Dutch oil company Shell reported it had shut down production at a major offshore oil facility in Nigeria because of another militant attack. "We shut down production at the Bonga oilfield following an attack by unknown militants this morning," Shell spokesman Precious Okolobo told AFP. Violence in the southern Delta region has reduced Nigeria's total oil production by a quarter since January 2006.
* * *
Reliance Industries, India's largest company, is increasing crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia as it seeks to secure supplies in the midst of rising demand in India and the rest of Asia, P.M.S. Prasad, president of the company's oil and gas business told Reuters. The company, which is building the world's largest refinery, is boosting purchases by at least 90,000 barrels a day, accounting for 30% of Saudi Arabia's output increase of 300,000 barrels a day this month.
* * *
Oil revenues for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE combined will be twice that of the US GDP if the high price of crude continues according to a Saudi investment company. If the annual average price hits $150, then the three countries will have a capital flow of $25.7 trillion, with $16.6 trillion going to the kingdom and the rest split evenly between Kuwait and the UAE. The GDP in the US, said Brad Bourland, Chief Economist and Head of Research at Jadwa Investment in Saudi Arabia, is $13 trillion. If the average price settles at $100, the three GCC countries will earn $17.2 trillion.
* * *
An official in In Iraq’s Naft Al Janoub (Southern Oil Co.) confirmed yesterday that Iraq oil exports from Basra regained their normal level after storms had suspended oil tankers activity for 4 days. Exports were completely when storms stopped tankers from anchoring in Basra port at the beginning of the week. However, the official said that the amelioration in weather conditions allowed two tankers to anchor in the port on Tuesday.

FRENCH AND LEBANESE PRESIDENTS TO MEET IN BEIRUT

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is making a trip to Lebanon next Saturday to meet and congratulate newly-elected Lebanese President, General Michel Suleiman. Sarkozy will also visit France’s army battalion that is part of the United Nations’ peace-keeping force in southern Lebanon

France, the former colonial power in both Lebanon and Syria, has been actively involved in trying to solve the deadlock in the election of a new Lebanese President. Lebanon was without a President since November of last year. Early on, France sent its Foreign Minister to Lebanon in an attempt to end the election crisis.

Ultimately, it was Qatari mediation that brought a resolution to the impasse. That mediation was initiated following a spate of violence by Hizballah that left 82 people dead.

Under the Qatari deal, General Suleiman, the Lebanese Army chief who refused to confront Hizballah, would become President but Hizballah would gain virtual veto power over governmental decision making by holding a majority of positions in a new Cabinet.

Throughout the Presidential election impasse, France backed the West-leaning coalition in opposition to PM Fuad Siniora. This put a strain on Franco-Syrian relations as did the eruption of the Hizballah violence. Sarkozy’s visit will again show support for the Lebanese government and may irritate the Syrians.
It is believed that Sarkozy will also meet with newly–reappointed Prime Minister Siniora. PM Siniora just completed two days of discussions with various Lebanese factions concerning the formation of the new Cabinet. He called on all factions to work together to "heal wounds" caused by recent fighting.

The upcoming visit follows last Thursday’s telephone call between Sarkozy and Syrian President Bashir al Assad. Sarkozy reportedly expressed his appreciation for Syria’s support of the Doha Agreement. Syria’s official news agency SANA, said that during the phone conversation Sarkozy praised "the tireless efforts made by President al-Assad for the success of the Doha agreement and the election of the president by the Lebanese parliament."

PM Suleiman’s official duties started immediately. The first official foreign visitor to see President Suleiman was Germany’s Foreign Minster, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is in Lebanon on the first leg of a tour of the Middle East. Steinmeier’s visit was followed closely by a congratulatory phone call from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The new President then bid farewell to Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifah al-Thani who had be on a visit to Lebanon. That was followed by a meeting with Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah.